The most important evidence for imminent commercialization is Waymo's recent order for 62,000 minivans. If we're assuming a conservative $100k a pop once they're loaded up with all the technology required, that's a $6B investment in depreciating assets. They wouldn't do that unless they were extremely confident that the technology is ready, and given their safety record, I'm inclined to believe them.

The frequently-repeated caveats certainly apply -- they'll only be operating in limited geographies with ideal weather; there will probably be roads, conditions and maneuvers that are restricted. But having actual autonomous vehicles on the road performing commercially useful tasks is by far most important step. The rest will come incrementally.

Exciting times.