I want to posit a general hypothesis (perhaps it's already been said); better-than-chance performance by a classifier on some dataset is not evidence that a similar (or any) classifier can perform better on the same data.
I want to posit a general hypothesis (perhaps it's already been said); better-than-chance performance by a classifier on some dataset is not evidence that a similar (or any) classifier can perform better on the same data.
Now climate is changing you see that all the models are becoming less and less acurate.
So yeah some models might be performing better but overall they are all performing worse.
That's not true.
"Last year, the National Weather Service 5-day forecasts were within 4 degrees of the high temperature. That's as accurate as 2005's 3-day forecasts and a full degree better than the 5-day forecasts of 11 years ago"[1]
[1] http://www.mcall.com/business/tech/mc-weather-forecasts-impr...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/...
Sounds really interesting.
Did all the true 'low return' predictions happen during a bear market, or is there a good temporal mix between predictions?
Did they all happen for the same company? If so, it it possible the report was revised after publication?
What horizon are they measuring performance over? What happens if the change that horizon? What happens if they lag the prediction by a day?
What happens if they use a finer granularity than high / medium / low?
How?