Our economy is predicated on consumer spending; we have a whole set of industries built on the backs of poor financial decision making and being near-broke (payday loans, credit cards, overdraft charge reordering, debt collectors, etc.) all of which pull power away from desperate people and give it to others (now your landlord/phone company/ISP/etc have legal grounds to kick you out, terminate your service, etc.) Never mind the difficulty of making use of a court system stacked against the poor...
> I hope voters and politicians recognize...
Actually, it appears that voters and politicians have zero interest in improving this situation, seeing as the current administration is making every effort to demoralize and defang the CFPB[0], which was literally created to do some of the things you're interested in.
I especially like how Mulvaney is moving everything into "financial education", as if an agency with 500M budget is going to make a dent against the billions spent on marketing related to financial "services".
[0] http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cfpb-student-loans-201...
Our economy, habits, and mindset can change with a great deal of work and energy. People are becoming more connected than ever before, and with that we can build a new kind of social momentum.
Hey, you're right, things suck now, but it doesn't have to be like this.
The only thing that will make it better is demanding that things change. This means mass unionization, strikes, worker owned businesses, protests, leftist politicians like Sanders and Corbyn, and a whole program of fundamental goods provided free at the point of service like healthcare, education, and child care. We have a lot of work ahead of us.
Unless you are a firm believer in the power of the Illuminati, we have as close to the opposite of a planned (and thus designed) economy as one can get in the present day.
Just because a behavior or other feature in a complex system is emergent doesn't mean the system was initially designed that way.
There is no vast monolithic conspiracy but there are certainly many smaller ones (lobbyists, front groups, back room deals, etc.) with incentives that align. Alignment of incentives can generate a result that looks a whole lot like the result of a big organized conspiracy.
If anything the less organized network of aligned interests is tougher to resist than an "Illuminati." It's more resilient and antifragile. Big vertically integrated power structures are slow and brittle.
In short:
1. A big chunk of the issues leading to today's constitution were tax and debt relief measures being instituted by the states in response to populist movements.
2. The framers were mostly very wealthy and biased toward preservation of capital.
3. Many of the measures instituted in the constitution were designed to preserve wealthy Americans' property (slaves, for instance). Populist debt relief efforts made this an especially high priority.
4. The only way to get the states to ratify the constitution was to concede many populist goals (state legislators were largely very wealthy as well, and apparently stubbornly pessimistic about the constitution despite its immediate necessity).
The book goes into great detail on the reasoning and compromises made to create the constitution. I think you will find that politics rigidly define the operation of our markets.
I get where you're coming from but you have some insufficient assumptions about the context in which this particular complex system operates.
I understand why this might seem like the most obvious answer, but your analysis seems to not take into account things like revolving door politics, regulatory capture, lobbyists priority access to lawmakers, citizens united, etc... etc... etc...
I don’t think most people would suggest that there is a small table surrounded by evil cackling billionaires conspiring to pull every single worldwide string, but rather there is a relatively small number of people who have enough money to buy themselves access to writing regulation and laws which favor their own interests which will often coincidentally align with the other billionaires who can afford this kind of access.
We can’t ignore the ways in which issues like this skew influence to a small number of powerful interests.
Of course. That's no excuse to snarf your coffee instead of putting nose to the grindstone and doing the work. Agitate, educate, organize!
If anything inflation only makes matters worse for people who weren't careful enough to save and invest in assets(like land) early on in their life.
"Doctors, lawyers, and IT people making low six figures" have absolutely nothing to fear. And for the extremely few fortunate people who actually make more than half a million dollars each year, they will easily be able to afford the new taxes.
Have you noticed that most tax deductions that are designed to help the middle class phase out in the $120 - $160K?
Yep.
Most people are perfectly capable of distinguishing between a middle class 2 bedroom house and someone who owns 15 vacation homes, a private jet, and private islands.
The real question is whether or not middle class people will punch down and behave as if no one can distinguish between a multi billionaire and and a normal middle class person or whether the middle class will refuse to let the billionaires put all of the stress on the middle class.
How many people making the median household income of $60K a year will object to a politician saying tax everyone extra making a household income of $116K- the top 20% of household income?
https://theoutline.com/post/2303/megan-mcardle-has-a-lot-of-...
However, to answer some of these points:
1) With respect to healthcare, investopedia has different numbers than the ones she cites: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/08061...
Some of the savings we posit from healthcare can be used to pay for other programs.
2) Eliminate Imperialism - Save > $1T dollars by not fighting wars based on lies. The Pentagon's budget was recently raised by about the amount a version of free college education would cost.
3) Tax the (Natural Person) Rich - Take their giant chunk of change and use it to buy more stuff, like infrastructure
4) Eliminate the Rentier Class - Housing is suddenly cheap and ordinary people have much more pocket change. Who will be incentivized to build housing then? Well, your representatives of course.
5) Tax the Tax Evaders - Apple, Google, and all the rest that use tricks to hide billions overseas (or have it parked here after the tax bill).
There's lots of money to find, just look under the couch.
That's an ad-hominem attack that has nothing to do with the substance of this discussion. How about sticking to the actual numbers?
> 1) With respect to healthcare, investopedia has different numbers than the ones she cites
Let's assume the investopedia numbers are right (though it's not clear why their uncited administrative costs number is more authoritative than an OECD report on administrative costs). They claim 5% of GDP in administrative costs (25% of 20%). The drug numbers they mention as being "saveable" are $11.6 billion per year; that's .0006% of GDP. No other numbers are cited for drugs there. For defensive medicine, .03% of GDP. For the other items, no numbers are given.
So we could potentially spend about 5% of GDP less on healthcare; the other bits all look like rounding error on that. I used $19.39 trillion for the current annual US GDP, fwiw.
And just to be clear, the actual US federal government spending on healthcare is about $1 trillion a year, or maybe 5-6% of GDP, as far as I can tell. The remaining 14-15% of GDP is spent outside the federal budget already. If we're trying to put it in the federal budget that means raising taxes by 9% of GDP or so.
> Eliminate Imperialism - Save > $1T dollars by not fighting wars based on lies.
This would definitely be nice, but that doesn't seem to be what most people propose. Again, the context is people proposing "just tax the 1%".
> Tax the (Natural Person) Rich
Right, this is the thing under discussion: taxing "the 1%". The total income of the top 1% is something around 20% of total personal income according to https://www.epi.org/blog/top-1-percent-receive-record-high-s... and total personal income is around $16.5 trillion according to https://www.statista.com/statistics/216756/us-personal-incom...
So if we taxed away every single penny "the 1%" earn, that gives us 16% of GDP. That's assuming that there are no disincentive effects, emigration, etc, etc. Probably a bad assumption.
> Eliminate the Rentier Class
I'm not sure what your actual proposal is here, but at this point I suspect we're way outside the realm of the politically feasible or desirable. That said, can you quantify this, please?
> Tax the Tax Evaders
I would be very much behind this idea. Again, this is not the same as "just tax the 1%".
Anyway, last I checked US government spending (including all levels of government) was about 37% of GDP. If we add the very optimistic 16% we can get by taxing "the 1%" we get to 53%. That's still less than France or Finland or Denmark spend. Yes, we could nationalize healthcare if we did that, fairly easily. We couldn't do all the other things people want to do by "taxing the 1%".
I agree that if we radically restructured everything about how the government is funded and what we spend money on then there are a lot more options. But, again, what people tend to propose is "just tax the 1% and use that money for X, Y, and Z". And there's not enough money in that bucket to do all those things.
That’s fine. Since we have a free market economy, someone else who wants that money more than you will do it instead.
On the other hand now that my marginal tax rate would be 33.6% (2018 Tax rates) since I'm already over the social security maximum from my primary job, it's much more attractive.
My wife would have jumped at the chance to make an extra work at $15 - $20 an hour (W2) when she was single, now at our combined tax rate, it's not even worth it. We are thinking about her working part time. The main reason she is working at all is for the health benefits that give me the opportunity to aggressively jump between contract, full time, unstable startups, and stable corporate jobs.
Taxes make a difference on how much someone is willing to work, especially if they make enough to be comfortable.
Firstly is your sole motivation for your business financial? Because if so you may as well sell it, buy property and let it out, you'll earn a comfortable living and if you use a letting agent you can get them to deal with the renters and do almost zero work, bar having to file taxes once a year (and hey you can get an accountant to do that for you). Even ignoring that, is your business something that actually generates a lot of profit or are the margins small? Whatever you're doing you could invest the time into an ICO and make millions. Point I'm getting at is that very few people start a business solely for financial reasons, there's usually some level of passion involved.
Secondly, why exactly would a high tax rate stop you expanding completely? You'll still be earning money, just less than before. And as the other commenter pointed out, someone else will step in if you don't, which could threaten your business.
You really think that the average small business person working from themselves are doing it out of "passion" rather than that's their best alternative? Many small business owners work as much as possible to avoid having to pay someone else, hardly ever take vacations, and if given the choice, I'm sure would rather work in a nice comfortable white collar job if they could make the same amount of money.
If you're trying to suggest that higher income socialists won't like it if they're the ones being taxed, then I don't think you understand socialists.
People are selfish and greedy. They always have been. They always will be.
Any solution to a problem that relies on building "a new kind of social momentum" are ignorant at best and actively harmful at worst.
Parent comment is right.
People are selfish and greedy:
Subprime mortgage crisis
Enron
George Soros shorting the British pound
The entire Mongolian expansion and their culture of rape and pillaging
* Small time Nazi officers stealing Jewish people's wedding rings
* Too big to fail
* Literally any employment contract where people are laid less than market value.
* Thieves exist.
* Murderers exist
* Corruption exists
* Swindlers exist
I guess that acknowledging human nature is edgy now. Well, fuck it. I must be edgy then.
Humans aren't all bad or all good. It's a spectrum of traits and behaviours, and they absolutely can be altered and conditioned.
The current administration was elected with fewer votes than the leading opponent, so it certainly reflects a subset of voters and the politicians comprising the administration, but hardly is a basis for concluding that voters in general have zero interest in issues simply because the administration evidently does not.
In some ways, perhaps, but not when the question is whether the actions of the person elected can, based on the election results, be taken as proof that the voters collectively have zero concern for an issue.
> the electoral college is skewed so that voters in states with lower population have more power so each vote is not equal.
True.
> This effect carries over to the Senate
No, it's a carryover from the Senate: electoral college representation is identical by state to Congressional representation in both houses combined.
Don't sneer. Do the hard work to make necessary things happen.
This will become more and more apparent in the coming years and I do believe it will be at the center of all conflict and political discourse going forward.
Nihilistic minds will lead us down a path that depletes the healthy parts of the system(s) upon which such people rely too heavily. And these aforementioned parasitic systems are not good at generating wealth nor are they historically efficient at generating innovation or new, stronger systems.
There might not be a revolution, but there will be a subverting downward spiral that will end with a wake up call. One can only hope and try to convince & convert others to put on the brakes long and hard enough for us to develop immunities and fixes.
I keep saying it; the amount of money in the system has increased +50% since 2008 [1], and worker compensation has gone up +25% (the BLS publishes a lot of series, I use [2]; hope it is right). So someone is getting a lot of money and it isn't obvious to what end - it isn't helping the workers or the poor, and nobody can make up that sort of difference by working harder. Workers are reaping a smaller percentage of society's bounty.
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2 [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A033RC1A027NBEA
It used to be that one could somewhat easily get $1M by just selling 1 million people some $1 items, however that required making 1M items in the first place. Nowadays one can get the same $1M by making just a single unit of IP, and selling 1M copies at $1 each. Sure there is no guaranteed way of knowing whether some IP will sell 1M copies, but that only turns it into a sort of lottery which exacerbates the inequality even more.
Given that money -and particularly M2- is credit, which is kind of an "intellectual property" on itself, it isn't really surprising that a greater amount of IP in circulation would also mean a greater amount of credit/money.
Workers who exchange their effort for a fixed amount of income, are just out of all this IP lottery and its income multiplying potential.
It went from overt violence to less obvious propaganda programs tuning our feelings
I wish the “smart” crowd would look into the history of government-corporate propaganda research
I’m not talking “deep state”. It’s plainly recorded in government record how they financed propaganda research and gifted it to media for advertising and corporate use
Look at the joke history classes taught in public school
Look at the efforts to hide info about the environment by this admin
There is a concerted effort in our faces to deceive and misdirect is
Economics, jobs, and government scandals are distractions in support of these efforts
Read up on Greenspan’s comments in the 90s about growing worker insecurity being a boon to beneficiaries of supply side economics
Watch Varoufakis explain how during the Greek debt crisis German tax payers took out loans from German banks to have it to Greece who gave it right back to German banks
This is a generations long boondoggle unrelated to one policy decision 10 yrs ago
It’s a round n round we go with numbers because even the educated masses are too on the periphery to see or outright prevented from being in the room
Deep state is nonsense. It’s public record what’s going on
Lack of information or looking on the part of the rubes and proles doesn’t mean “conspiracy”
Especially when it’s a Google search away
The true Middle Class probably don't make any distinction between anyone who is in the top 20% (household income over $116,000) or especially the top 10% ($161,000).
https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator-201...
Because middle class in a capitalist society is an economic relationship between the captialist and working class (characterized by mixed dependence on capital and labor, most archetypically the independent operator who supports themselves by applying their own labor to their own capital rather than primarily by renting labor to apply to capital or selling labor to capitalists), and its members are usually well above middle income (though, on average, far below that of the capitalist class.)
The middle income quintile is largely members of the proletariat, not the petit bourgeoisie.
Finally, a condition wether your own labour is not technically required for survival.
Most petit bourgeoisie still has to work, does not wield direct (individual) political power nor has big enough assets to survive despite major downturns.
The difference from proletariat is that they can rent and hire labour. Sometimes they get to manage it too.
haut bourgeoisie (capitalists): those who own capital and rent labor to apply to it.
petit bourgeoisie (middle class): those who live by a combination of labor and capital, particularly those who apply their own labor (perhaps alongside a small amount of rented labor) to their own capital.
proletariat (working class): those who derive income mainly by selling labor to members of either of the preceding classes.
In Marx's time, these categories perhaps mapped more consistently to the gradation of wealth and power, but there were exceptions then too.
And the degree to which an asset is "capital" that produces wealth and income without the owner's labor is relative to it's scarcity. The 30k car is a common possession, and also it has no added economic value without the driver's direct labor. A fleet of cars driven by rented labor is capital, as are factories, valuable land, or high concentrations of wealth.
Education is a kind of capital, but the surgeon's student loan is no different in than a social worker's student loan, except in the cost and income potential.
In that sense the surgeon is a worker but their work usually produces a great deal of extra income that allows them to purchase capital assets of other kinds.
In the simple, no debt financing case, that's the most obvious categorization, though much the same concerns that lead to questions about whether those drivers are rightly categorized as contractors might be raised as to whether they are genuinely self-employed independent business owners or rented labor being applied to Uber capital with a weird gatekeeping mechanism.
> and a surgeon working for a hospital who has put 400k toward education is part of the proletariat?
A lot to high income workers (surgeons often very much among them) are joint capital/labor earners of a kind that diverges from the independent small business owner model, because they gain substantial income, often deferred through reinvestment and often mainly in what are held largely as retirement funds, on capital to which their own labor is not applied, as well as selling labor to capital; for that reason they’d generally be seen as petit bourgeoisie, thought somewhat different from the main textbook example.
> Or do you count education as capital?
Traditionally, if it's not been made property that can be itself sold freely in capitalist economy, it's not capital in the analysis of economic class in a capitalist economy. (Looked at from within the system rather than from critics of capitalism, ask yourself: are the returns of education taxed like labor or like capital—that tells you how the capitalist system itself sees them.)
The main difference is in influence wielded...
The social Dynamics of the modern anerican situation have changed so much from when Marx was alive his labels no longer accurately apply.
Generally by that time the wealthy are long out of the country. In fact in most revolutions where people imagine they will take from the rich, people are generally in for a shock when they realize the rich are long gone. And now the door for a peaceful taxation is also gone.
>>The biggest achievement of the wealthy has been to convince the middle class to eat itself.
The wealthy have to convince nothing. Middle class is full of people who want instant gratification, and are bad at savings and investments.
I can't find the link right now, but there was a TedX talk by a multi-millionaire arguing that he wants to be taxed more. And it's a growing trend, a lot of very wealthy people are starting to plead for higher taxes. The reasoning being if wealth inequality continues to widen, eventually it won't be a case of shaking the rich to empty their pockets a bit, it will be a case of hanging the rich from lampposts.
I've met a lot of anti-capitalists who are mildly Posadist/accelerationist for this reason. For all of the ideas in this thread regarding increasing taxes on the rich and social welfare problems, I cannot help but believe that ultimately, we are overdue large scale social unrest in 1st world countries. Placating the proletariat with incentives like tax breaks and welfare programs is great in the short term, but in the end it might just be delaying the inevitable, and making it far worse. I'm firmly of the belief that a new economic system needs to be part of mainstream discussion as soon as possible, because otherwise we will eventually have riots which cause a power vacuum, and history has shown nothing good comes from that.
This? https://www.ted.com/talks/nick_hanauer_beware_fellow_plutocr...
Technically government is already equipped to do everything a charity can and more eith superior information so should be more efficient at it. Although it depends on the country/state in question.
I will say this again. As a mobile adult, in the United States, to not have $400 on reserve for an emergency is simply not possible with proper decision-making. Individuals at that level of poverty have national and state level food stamps, welfare, disability, affordable housing, rent control, minimum-wage laws, child-support, often social security, medicare/medicaid. It's not as though the country has a non-existent social safety net. You simply can't propose that the solution can exist independently of the personal decisions made by the individuals in this position.
The reason for some people not having the money around is undoubtedly poor decision making, but for a great many others they simply have no gainful employment, no prospects of obtaining gainful employment and are often trapped in debt spirals due to past financial desperation.
I'm real happy for you that you're so far removed from their situation that none of this occured to you.
The whole individual agency and moral superiority complex of American culture is more and more sickening to me as I grow older and see how most people simply with a rational set of actions and existing opportunities better off not pursuing what used to be the better options due to structural problems. Endless optimism only works so far for attitudes that help with success until you’re truly at a rock bottom point and nobody wants to be near someone that’s failed so much out of social niceties alone.
There are obvious exceptions for individuals suffering from unavoidable medical circumstances and the like, and I am fully willing to criticize our existing healthcare system's failings in providing suitable mitigation against such circumstances. But we're talking about 40% of the country.
I think we are mostly products of our surroundings so, yes, good decisions can help a lot. It just seems placing that level of "blame" is counter-productive and just does not represent reality on the ground. Trapped is trapped, you used the word yourself. I'd wager you have little idea the sorts of life traps that are laid out there. Having debt is pretty easy even with a better than average stability matrix. A single hit with bad luck is simply made worse as the "socially permitted" trolls eat their prey where no "socially permitted" social safety net exists that could possibly save them.
What is that? Trickle-down blame? You got yours? I simply don't understand the economics of "it's your own damn fault" with the force of a gavel.
The vast US homeless population suggests we don't really have a safety net, so much as a safety rope you need to hold on tight and pray. Consider, if all the homeless people showed up in the same place that would instantly be in the top 10 US cities.
Yes, I've lost jobs before because of corporate restructuring.
Imagine you went to a crappy school where you spent most of your days trying to avoid gangs rather than learning anything. You did everything people told you to do and you applied to some for-profit bullshit college that accepted you. You signed some paperwork that you literally didn't understand the details of (because of said shitty school and parents who have never dealt with this situation before and for-profit colleges that explicitly set out to target people exactly like you). Now you have $50,000 in debt that you literally can't even declare bankruptcy on and no marketable skills. What do you now do?
To blame it all on personal responsibility degenerates into a No True Scotsman argument very quickly. It's the kind of overly simplistic thinking that makes thirteen year old kids think Ayn Rand had it all figured out and never think further than than her heroic fantasy novels.
(I admit, I actually really like Ayn Rand's philosophy if it's seen as an ideal, rather than something that is practically p[possible. Marx and Engels were also idealists and in their perfect world everyone would be happy too.)
Humans are not born with an innate understanding of optimal decision making and the power of compound interest. Our environment shapes us to a massive degree and you're discounting this.
The problem occurs when there are MANY emergencies. You're about to get evicted, your car is broken down (so you're about to lose your job) and your kid is sick and you need a doctor but can't take the time off to get one.
>I will say this again. As a mobile adult, in the United States, to not have $400 on reserve for an emergency is simply not possible with proper decision-making.
Okay. The day your turn eighteen, your parents (who taught you very little and gave you nothing) kick you out on the street. You have no money (because they flat out stole it the day before you became an adult). Where does this magic $400 come from?
$400 is a LOT of money. The federal minimum wage is $7.25 before taxes. That's a week and a half of work without accounting for gas money to get you to the job or food to eat when you get there. After the basics (taxes, cheapest-possible rent, basic food, some kind of heating and lighting and a few other things) you're probably at the point where you have $10 or $20 left over.
Let's say you get sick, or disabled, or laid off. You are so fucked.
> Individuals at that level of poverty have national and state level food stamps, welfare, disability, affordable housing, rent control, minimum-wage laws, child-support, often social security, medicare/medicaid.
Have you any idea how long it takes to get disability? Years. And years. And it's not certain at all. What do you do in the meantime?
Even the other programs - they often fail the very people they are designed to help the most.
Child support? Again, have you any idea how many years it takes to get child support from someone who bails from their job every time the paperwork makes its way into the syste, and who never files a tax return?
Poor decision making or lack of personal responsibility are certainly sufficient to achieve such a situation... but they're not necessary. Unless you play with the definition of "poor decision making" to include things like "capable of making mistakes."
This could be a good time for everyone to review the concept of the Fundamental Attribution Error: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error
I’m making well into six figures now, but in my early 20s, I was living pay check to pay check and barely had enough to eat some weeks. If I managed to scrape up an extra $400, I had a hundred things to spend it on that weren’t a rainy day fund.
This alone is sufficient motivation to drive policies which ensure not just inequality, but humiliation of the losers.
Honestly, though, you're just stating the obvious: people screw up and behave irrationally. That's common knowledge.
The goal is to minimize the impact of poor decisions and give people a way to get back on track. "F* 'em, I've got mine" doesn't help anybody.
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/72745-the-reason-that-the-r...
Repetition doesn't actually make your claim any better supported, so maybe instead of repeating it, provide better support or, failing that, just stop instead of reiterating.
I wonder if you suddenly incurred uninsured medical expenses of oh, let's say, 20X your net worth or annual income, whether you might see things differently.
A family of four on a $50K annual income would find a sudden $1000K obligation utterly devastating.
That's life for (IMHO) too many of us. On average, it has far more to do with luck than your proffered causal moral failure. I think we can do better.
There's a lot of "let them eat cake instead" mentality in that statement.
What makes $400 the ideal number? Probably nothing, except the fact that it makes for the best headline, since "2 out of 5" is a quotable statistic.
Formulating advice should follow a different pattern. The ideal number for emergencies is probably closer to $5,000 since it covers more realistic emergency scenarios.
$500 might cover food, gas, a few taxi rides or train tickets and basic OTC medication like asprin for possibly a week.
$5,000 might cover a lost or stolen laptop, plane tickets, hotel stays, car repairs, emergency rooms and ambulances and out-of-pocket prescriptions, funerals, rent or convert to a month's worth of basic needs (food, gas, short-haul travel).
More is obviously always better, but emergency response is about covering the cost of capacity to react, plus supplies needed to take action, plus duration of endurance. $500 wouldn't keep you off the street for more than a weekend, but $5,000 could last a month or more.
Overall, which one of the following best describes how well you are managing financially these days?
14 (0.1%): Refused
893 (7.2%): Finding it difficult to get by
2,395 (19.2%): Just getting by
4,930 (39.6%): Doing okay
4,215 (33.9%): Living comfortablyI might call it blind optimism seeing as pg 21 of the same PDF shows the sources they would consider to fund an emergency expense, but not spin.
Yes, it sucks to have trouble coming up with $400 for an emergency. But it's not a serious threat to the ongoing stability of society.