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Comment by mrfusion | Hacker News Reader

I checked your math and it seems correct. I don’t get it. I could see them possibly moving a few thousand passengers a day but 32k seems out of the question?

What are we missing?

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As a resident of South Florida, I'm guessing they're banking on the eventual Orlando connection. Many of the theme parks in Orlando offer very attractive discounts for Florida residents, especially in the off season, but speaking personally, our family has refrained from taking more advantage due to the drive. From Miami to Broward traffic can be a nightmare, and then from Broward to Orlando the Florida Turnpike is surrounded by...nothing. For two hours of drive time the only signs of civilization are the rest areas on the Turnpike (which, admittedly, are undergoing major updates, but still have limited offerings).

If we had the option, instead, to pay $100 per person to ride up on a relaxing train, we'd probably be taking the kids every other weekend over the summer.

Alternatively, taking a slightly more cynical outlook, they might be gambling on a hurricane evac windfall or two. As Irma approached we evac'd our family to Orlando, but the drive that usually took 3 hours turned into 12 hours of bumper-to-bumper nightmare. Flights out of MIA and FLL that usually cost $300 or $400 jumped in price to over $3500 literally overnight. For even $400 we probably would've opted for the train.

As a former South Floridian who used the heck out of my Disney passes for the ~15 months I had them... US-27 is the way to go. Much less stressful and you're never far from civilization from South Bay on up. Can get a bit trafic-y around Sebring but generally it's an easy smooth drive.

Or go around the east side of Lake Okeechobee at South Bay, 98/441. Less civilization, more tourist traffic and having to deal with passing zones... but still a nicer ride than the Turnpike.

Either way takes a bit longer but the scenery is nicer. For middle Florida values of nice scenery, anyway -- I greatly prefer the mountains.

And you could probably have a buffet car on that length of route and as you say it increases the potential catchment area for the parks.

Last year in the UK I helped optimise a ppc campaign for Centre Parcs (up market forest holidays) and they found that almost all customers would only drive < 2hours.

So I knocked up a simple Perl system that used the lat and long of every post town/place in the country and worked out the as the crow flies distance to each site.

Sounds just like the SF<->LA drive along I-5, traffic, then nothing for a long time (western edge of the San Joaquin valley), then more traffic. Yet people still do it. Currently the coastal train route is very slow and expensive, the inland train stops at Bakersfield, hours from LA. The best option is to fly until the eventual high speed rail.

I've done both drives. The FTL to Orlando drive is so easy in comparison that, I'm not sure they are comparable at all. Its only 3 hours from FTL to downtown Orlando.

That is like half way from SF to Tahoe on Friday after work.

Florida East coast railways, owner and operator of Brightline also the owns the tracks this runs on. As part of Brightline they have done a lot of track work and will eventually be doubling the tracks from Miami up the coast and adding the new track to Orlando. I suspect they are capitalize these cost under Brightline but will take advantage for the freight business too. That could account for some if the math not seeming to make business sense.

Well they can also generate revenue by advertisement. plus property rate around station will going to be high (it will be great impact on money rotation)

more people traveling in train instead of personal car will also reduce co2 in air which is eco friendly too.

less traffic means there is a wide and safe road for bicycle rider and people who like to walk.

one big benefit of travel throw train is time. you can be on place on estimated time. due to less traffic.

All my comments are based on my experience, I am traveling throw train for work, here in tokyo.

Advertising revenue is insignificant compared to fare revenue.

I edited my response, sorry I did not see your response before, but my point it is not always about money.

Ask that to Bangkok BTS system. Fare revenue is roughly equals to advertising revenue.

> What are we missing?

Nothing. This is a bad business model.

So all those investors are idiots?

Yes!

I know it is astounding, but sometimes people with lots of money can make stupid decisions with that money.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/01/juicero-s...

[2] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/betsy-devoss-family-lost-1...

See sibling comments about property investments

A 4 lane highway can move 10,000 people per hour. I don't see 32k people/day as a problem.

It might take some time for development to build around the idea of this form of transit as people reconfigure their live-work arrangements around it but it should be do-able. Hopefully the local ordinances are adjusted to allow for this reconfiguration.

Americans love cars and the roads are heavily subsidized, a 40mi drive will cost a few dollars and you can take 3-6 people.

A new, financed car is approaching $500/mo in payments, insurance, and petrol. The price of a well equipped Camry is over $30k. And dealers are turning to more exotic financing terms to keep people buying; 6 and 7 year financing is becoming more common just to keep the payments down.

Owning a car is becoming a major, but necessary, liability for those that don’t have mass transit.

This makes sense if your only use of the car was for your commute but many people use a car for other activities as well and if you have one the incremental cost of driving to work could be less than mass transit, hence the complaints about the high cost. Personally, I hate driving and would much rather use the train.

Americans hate cars now, which is why they prefer mass transit and ride share.

Dear SF Bubble, meet the rest of America.

Yes. SF needs to stop trying to make self-driving cars a thing and catch up to the rest of the country that wants mass transit.

Why do SF tech companies keep reinventing the bus??

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