I haven't done much research into the numbers (only popped up on my radar a while ago) but the CEO said they have access to $300m worth of capital (i.e. debt) + the service would be profitable at 5m users. Burn was supposedly reduced by 30% since introducing that recent change. Which would give them approx. 15-20 months to execute their strategy in the best case.
On the off chance this one does work out, this will likely be a 100 bagger.
This company will likely go bankrupt. On the off chance it doesn't go bankrupt it will likely not increase in value 10,000%.
Movie theaters already have access to what movies people are seeing. They also have control over the ticket serving infrastructure. Moviepass literally exists because movie theaters don't want to waste their own money finding a profitable balance for subscriptions. So they'll let Moviepass burn 300 million validating the idea. Worst case scenario, it's a bad idea and movie theaters lose nothing, best case scenario its a good idea and they offer the service themselves.
Also, while AMC is large, they aren’t the only game in town. They only control ~8k of the 40k screens in the US. You can bet that if moviepass is able to drive demand away from AMC they will cave eventually.
"Fast forward to today, in March and April, MoviePass paid AMC $12.02 per ticket on hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of tickets each month, hundreds of thousands of their subscribers came through AMC theaters to enjoy our product. They did so at a frequency of 2.62 times in March and 2.75 times in April. Now, I took the calculator out and I multiplied 2.75 times $12.02, and I got to a number that was considerably larger than 995. So just as we were hearing that -- the MoviePass price point was unsustainable in August, we have the same questions today. And apparently we’re not alone in that view. Our doubts are now shared and articulated by MoviePass's orders."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4170917-amc-entertainment-h...