A couple of questions — which was prompted by your blog
What situations is there no value in research ? Corrollary — are there ways you can systemically reduce your risk by increasing your gut feel for probabilities without reesearch ? Final one — you make the great point on unknown unknowns — apart from systemically working through all possible states and thinking through various envrionmental changes — are there any systemic approaches to reducing this risk. In working with startups — I would summarise an alternative approach that covers all 3 by the following pieces of accepted wisdom from startups.
Launch early — to validate in the market with real people Talk to customers to build an empathy or gut feel for relative priorities of stuff — and what really matters I think these two principles go some way to solving the problems you are highlighting through a different approach.
I’m sharing — as I’m sure you have considered this appraoch — and have a reason for discarding it.
I wrote a bit about it here https://medium.com/@nilanp/building-conviction-the-art-of-pr...
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