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Comment by throwaway76543 | Hacker News Reader

Nothing's guaranteed but the odds are very, very good. If you invest in a diversified index fund like VTI then 7% is a reasonable average growth estimate.

Investing a lump sum is a risk -- you'd cut your fortune nearly in half if you invested in 2008. This isn't an issue for most folks who save over time.

Frankly, the largest thing stopping folks from investing is financial literacy. The second largest thing is probably lack of disposable income.

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You're completely right. Grabbing some Vanguard index ETF and dollar cost averaging is definitely what I (and others) should be doing.

I'd bet 7% YoY over 20 years is conservative.

Typically the 7% number is used for after inflation

> financial literacy

How does one gain it? Everywhere I look, there's so many scam artists and so much confusion that I don't know what's true / reasonable anymore.

Thank you. Every HN thread about the stock market seems to ignore pr downplay risk. If the stock market was really risk-free everyone would be able to retire a millionaire.

At least historically, there is no reason everyone couldn't.

There is no 30 year period in the history of the s&p 500 that returns less than 7% if I remember correctly.

Just imagine what you’d have gotten out of investing in the German, Russian, Chinese or Rhodesian stock exchanges in 1900. I don’t know what happened to people who were heavily invested in the French stock exchange in 1939 but I doubt it was good either. I wouldn’t want to be in the South Korean or Japanese stock exchange if North Korea does anything. You may think war is unlikely but so did a lot of people in 1913. The USA may be the safest available what with the oceans to the East and West and the client states to North and South but it’s not like a civil war would be unprecedented.

Most people don't invest in ultra-cheap index trackers though. They pay high fees for funds that can under-perform the market.

To be fair, index funds are a relatively new thing.

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