Comment by vertexFarm | Hacker News Reader

Comment by vertexFarm | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

I always hear people saying that blockchain is being used for all kinds of interesting things that gives them intrinsic value, but that's not why bitcoin's price has gotten so high (and recently dropped so dramatically, but still very high).

Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrency is almost exclusively used for speculation. People generally buy bitcoin for one reason and one reason only: to get rich from selling it later.

A currency driven in this great a percentage by speculation is a dangerous bubble. Until it lives up to the hype and this blockchain ecosystem actually exists in a density large enough to realistically support the currency's valuation, I would listen to Warren Buffet's advice.

There's a lot of adherents who are reaching fanatical levels of devotion to blockchain, and those types will explain away any unbeliever's lack of faith. The fact remains--cryptocurrency is almost entirely driven by speculation. A sustainable currency doesn't do that. A Ponzi scheme does that.

A lot of the blockchain applications seem really kind of flimsy and hollow, as if they are really there to prop up a crypto fortune in the hopes that some kind of ecosystem develops and prevents the inevitable crash. Those probably aren't going to work. Once again, it points to fact that the primary purpose of the currency is currently just a get rich quick scheme.

Speculation is a critical part of the process. It's called "signaling".

If price of Aluminium goes up a lot, people will be "signaled" to build more Aluminium mines, Aluminium smelters and so on. All of these people are driven by profit. Yet their profit-seeking provides a service, at least until Aluminium will not be needed anymore.

The same for bitcoin. The ever-increasing price signals all kind of people to do all kind of things. This is critical for adoption.

Thing is, that aluminum industry in your example existed before the investment and independent from the investment. People need aluminum and are going to buy it.

If you have a signal to purchase more currency, and that currency's value only goes up if more people show up to buy it at a higher price, and those people can only get a payout if another tier of people show up and pay a higher price... See the shape of that structure? Vaguely... triangular?

Legitimate investment takes advantages of inefficiencies in pricing. It's not possible to always sell a commodity at the absolute ideal and correct price at the correct time, especially for an industry just getting its start. So people with a lot of assets can take some commodity, hold it for a period of time, then sell it wisely to take advantage of an existing industry. Or nurture it and reap the rewards when it is successful. See how cryptocurrency is potentially different? Most of the price of crypto is not supported by any industry. It's people buying more in hopes of getting rich quick. It's absolutely a bubble in its current incarnation, although hopefully it develops a more diverse underpinning as time goes on.

If it develops that foundation then it will be like investing in a fledgeling industry, nurturing it until it can become self-sustaining and profitable. If those applications don't come through, it's just another scheme.

You seem to be slowly turning to the side of it being an investment in the end.

You start out with lambasting bitcoin and crypto as nothing but a ponzi scheme, yet by the end of this paragraph you admit that

>If it develops that foundation then it will be like investing in a fledgeling industry, nurturing it until it can become self-sustaining and profitable. If those applications don't come through, it's just another scheme.

Which is exactly what it is!

I think lots of crypto debates should more accurately define their context.

Are we debating if the current price of bitcoin represents its intrinsic value?

Are we debating if bitcoin even has any value?

I don't see this drift you're speaking of. I actually really want to see cryptocurrency become a real thing, it has this amazing promise of computers maintaining a sense of absolute truth that resists all falsification. We desperately need to build a new decentralized system as the internet is brought under the control of fewer people each day.

But it's not looking good so far. People need to be more mindful of how bubbles have played out in history. Realistic valuation is more healthy for a fledgeling industry than enormous, uncontrolled, and ultimately false sensationalist growth.

I think anything has value so long as there's a group consensus of value. I'm not debating that. You say a fledgeling industry is exactly what bitcoin is, but I don't think we have strong enough evidence of that. I'm hopeful but skeptical. I'm allowed to be both. And if somebody calls me a concern troll I'm going to lose my mind. I hate that term. Eliminates any sort of realistic self-evaluation within a group. Sometimes it pays to examine yourself in a negative light.

People gotta understand the possibility of it being a false promise as well as the possibility of it playing out well, but right now there seems to be two distinct and fanatical camps with no middle ground.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com