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Comment by pmccool | Hacker News Reader

Interesting rant. I do not think that 3-D printing is going to play much of a part, though. You mention an open-source bicycle; this is a good illustration of the problem.

The bicycle I rode to work today has: - a frame made of heat-treated steel tubes brazed together - wheels made of extruded aluminium and stainless-steel wire - rubber tyres

... not to mention all the other bits and pieces; machined hubs, ball-bearings, etc etc.

I would be impressed at a 3-D printer that could produce any one of these things at a reasonable price, let alone all three. Small scale manufacturing of bicycle parts is confined to high-value niche areas.

I'm afraid I don't see much evidence of decentralised manufacturing here in .au, apart from offshoring, which I doubt has much to do with the sort of open manufacturing you seem to have in mind. I imagine things are the same in most Western economies, although I freely admit this is no more than speculation.

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"The bicycle I rode to work today has:"

Well there's your problem. The point isn't to exactly recreate what we have today. The bike as you own it now is like it is because that's the easiest way to manufacture - rather than stamping it out of a block of steel, they take a couple of tubes and weld them together. If it's easier to 3d-print by making the whole thing in plastic, we'll have to engineer materials that allow this and still maintain enough function to be used like today's bike.

Innovation doesn't have to be constrained by today's standards. The Wright brothers didn't have to replicate the flapping wings of a bird, just building something that would fly was ok.

The two phases of computer networking:

1. Smart server, dumb terminal

You install the software on the server and the terminal makes a connection to the server; the terminal is only an input/output machine.

2. Smart server, smart terminal

You can install the software on the terminal itself and run the software locally. (A desktop application) You can install the software on the server and the terminal makes a connection to the server; the terminal acting as an input/output machine. (A traditional web site with POST requests) You can also install software to the server and the terminal downloads a copy of the software to be run locally, downloading data from the server as needed. (A 'web 2.0' web site or an app downloaded from an app store.)

The possible two phases of manufacturing:

1. Production at the factory, Consumption at the home

The factory produces the goods and the goods are delivered to the home to be consumed.

2. Production at the factory, Production at the home

The factory produces the machines for producing consumables, and the machines are delivered to the home to produce whatever the home requires.

Computers were one of the first "systems" to become decentralized. I believe it is only a matter of time before other systems, such as factories, become decentralized too.

When they can print a working bicycle chain then I'll believe this kind of technology is ready for mainstream manufacturing.

Not to mention that, for the foreseeable future, the end result of a homemade bike (for all but the most skilled) would probably be below the standard of the cheap products you could get outside of specialty bike stores anyway. Are the prosumers/dedicated-types riding those now? Not really.

That said, I suspect DIYers, innovators, etc will find a way to make it work regardless, even if it means starting very simply with parts or things like crockery, glassware, basic construction, etc.

You can already print in steel, and rubber. You can print in plastic and rubber at the same time.

Both of those things are still pretty expensive. But We Have The Technology. It's only a matter of time until it gets cheaper.

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