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Comment by shadowtree | Hacker News Reader

This is truly exciting and only just the beginning.

There is a host of bio-tech startups following this initial wave - with two main goals:

1., Improve the treatments to become 100% cures

2., Lower the price

This is very similar to tech and, say, the storage space. Went from 100k for a few GBs to peanuts for TBs on AWS pretty quickly. That's what momentum in a crowded space will do.

Healthcare systems around the globe will have to figure out the effects of this, similar to autonomous driving. And it is not just simple cost of treatment.

What if cancer becomes curable? What to do with all the cancer wards? Specialists in Oncology? Chemo/Radio/Surgery? The spider-web effect here is gigantic.

Sticker price for the drug vs. long term treatment (multiple chemo rounds, surgery, palliative care) if its 100k is NOTHING.

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Yes, this news is exciting. But right now we're a very long way from curing cancer.

In 50% of the full range of cancer types treated so far by the drug in question, immunotherapy does absolutely nothing. And for another 25% it helps only a little. Only about 25% see a game-changing response. Even then, among high responders, most are not cured. They do live longer than if treated only with chemo. (In this study announcement, there's a 51% better survival rate after one year. That's great for those who are near death. But it offers them additional months of life, not decades.)

As of today, the fraction of patients who are fully cured of cancer by immunotherapy is unhappily small. It's also important to remember that these therapies are too new for us to know how long the positive effects will last. Will the lucky ones add months or years to their lives? We don't know. As of today it's just too soon to tell.

I do agree that the potential of treating cancer using the immune system is exciting. Certainly. But right now we're nowhere near able to declare victory or start worrying about the implications of ending cancer. That's not fair to the unlucky majority of cancer patients.

But it offers them additional months of life

Personally, I always wonder why people go through the pain and expenses to add a few more months. Years/cure - yes, go for it. A few months? I'll take the painkillers and anti anxiety drugs, thanks - it was a good run.

absolutely, but also a chicken and egg problem.

a lot of immuno-onco is currently only approved for late-stage cancer patients. basically once you're near death and chemo/radio is done, you get the new stuff. and even within those groups you get people that are cancer-free within weeks. astonishing.

long term survival is unknown - sure. no one has been treated ten years ago with this stuff. besides a time machine there is no way of knowing, just waiting.

watching companies like https://www.modernatx.com/ building whole platforms is super exciting though. as someone who has lost family and young colleagues to cancer, this shit cannot come soon enough.

From an economic perspective, cures (or, even, long-term durable remissions) are definitely disruptive to the current models of care.

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