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Last time this happened I said Instacart is a middleman and I didn't see their opportunity to break out and be a market maker.

But I just realized a potential endgame: Instacart will be Amazon Prime (the subscription delivery business) without the need to be Amazon (the retail, global-scale logistics, and marketing company).

Do I want to pay 30% extra on every individual order from local stores to have Instacart handle the delivery? No.

But would I consider paying something like Amazon Prime fees, every month, to have 'free' delivery on orders over $100 from my grocery store, Costco, Trader Joe's, pet store, J. Crew, etc? Very likely.

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> would I consider paying something like Amazon Prime fees, every month, to have 'free' delivery on orders over $100 from my grocery store...

Wonder if you realize Amazon just rolled out exactly that for Whole Foods. Free 2-hour delivery for Prime members -- via Prime Now, not Amazon Fresh. Just launched in SF like a couple weeks ago. And it's a $35 minimum.

Major advantage over Instacart is vastly superior direct integration with their inventory system. Way less substitutions. Also Prime ($99) is obviously a higher-value bundle than Instacart Express ($149).

Instacart's opportunity is to serve all the other retailers that are crapping their collective pants over this. Whether it's a short or long term opportunity... remains to be seen.

>Wonder if you realize Amazon just rolled out exactly that for Whole Foods. Free 2-hour delivery for Prime members -- via Prime Now, not Amazon Fresh. Just launched in SF like a couple weeks ago. And it's a $35 minimum.

It's worth noting that Instacart has been doing this for years now, and has massive amounts of operational experience in this area which Amazon lacks. They also have lower or no minimums and a greater selection.

Instacart does not have better selection at WF, due to the inferior inventory system.

Amazon’s minimum is $35 for free 2hr delivery.

Not too worried about Amazon’s operational experience with deliveries.

"way less substitutions" we had three no-ask substitutions on our very last order and arugula that spoiled in two days time. Canceled our trial. Instacart, at least in NYC, is a mess IMO.

thats what he said. AMZN is better

Right now I wouldn't say prime now's inventory integration is any better, but I'm sure it eventually will be. Both instacart and prime now seem to have trouble determining if an item is actually in stock.

It’s still better. Instacart has a completely separate “crowdsourced” database. Amazon at least has comprehensive SKUs and prices.

> all the other retailers

this is a big pool, with not only deep pockets but millions of customers who are not ever going to shop at Whole Foods. Think Target and Costco customers, and think of every other local retail experience they have that can be delivered.

Making it profitable is a whole other can of worms but I definitely see opportunity.

"Think Sears customers. Think Macys. Think JC Penny."

- equivalent sentiment 20 years ago.

> Making it profitable is a whole other can of worms but I definitely see opportunity.

Great, so there's an unprofitable opportunity for Instacart. Fantastic.

In all seriousness that's why I said short vs long term.. I probably agree Instacart can exploit some of the retailer panic here in the short term. But in the long term large scale vertically integrated players have massive cost and customer experience advantages.

I don't disagree. I'm just trying to imagine what investors are thinking pouring all this money into Instacart. And none of this rules out Instacart being gobbled up by Amazon after some down rounds.

Prime is such a success because it triggers more Amazon purchases, such a hypothetical offering from Instacart would trigger more money losing deliveries for Instacart.

Update: I didn’t realize Instacart has already rolled this out. I think it’s genius, and a strategy where not being Amazon is a big advantage b/c Amazon is trying to replace the businesses Instacart is signing up as partners.

instacart express is 150/year or 15/month for unlimited free delivery over 35.

the few times ive used it the experience hasnt been great though, so couldnt imagine using it enough for that to be worth it

I had Instacart express for a year (it was $99/year).

I cancelled it after a year. If I want nothing but dry goods, I'll get them on Prime Now: the Instacart shoppers couldn't buy the produce at the quality that I would expect it to be for that price...so, I just go to Whole Foods and buy my own groceries now.

I used Prime Now and Prime Pantry to do my return-from-a-long-trip grocery shopping and it was fantastic. The product quality was really good and it was the first time I thought one of these convenience services was not a rip off.

I don't understand, you said you wouldn't use Instacart, but do you see them surviving?

I said I would probably not use Instacart in one set of circumstances, but probably would in another. Especially if the perceived value was higher.

I think this is better stated as "consumer behavior does not always map to MY logic". Paying for Instacart is a logical decision for some people (or at least they think it's a logical decision). I would never be a customer but that doesn't inherently mean it's a bad business or people that are customers aren't being logical.

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