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But if your identity is bound to the popular service, your switching cost is very high. For example, if I decide that mstdn.io isn't my thing anymore, and go elsewhere, I lose all of my followers (as far as I know).

Even email has the same problem.

With Matrix, switching to another server is painful because one's identity is tied to the particular server. I've done such a move and it requires rejoining all rooms and re-establishing any elevated privileges on each. Also, other people will still seen any People (one-to-one / direct message) rooms associated with the old account and may try to use them.

You can maybe ratchet your way out of this POV, like so:

Would there ever be a centralized provider without there being an incentive for it? Would such an incentive ever exist without an accompanying incentive to leverage your dominance to keep competing providers out?

As in the case of Google Talk/Meet?

XMPP?