The math just doesnt work out, go and run hardcore for about 3 miles at 250 lbs bodyweight and you are looking at burning about 500 calories. While thats a good amount its the same as maybe 2 bottles of soda. Its a lot easier to cut out 100 calories from 5 meals then to run 3 miles...
So I never advocate exercise for weight loss purposes as much as diet. I greatly advocate exercise for all the other benefits plus the motivation it helps with in dieting.
Really as someone else stated, if you are overweight you need to make a lifestyle change. Cut out all the crap esp empty calories like soda (sugar) pastries, and other junk.