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Is due. Just because something hasn't happened for some time doesn't by itself mean it's immminent. How are the distributions of earthquake events and magnitudes typically modeled?

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Earthquakes tend to come from relieving built up stresses, so the “due” term is appropriate. They’re not purely random.

It's one of those times gamblers fallacy isn't accurate. The longer since an earthquake, the more likely it becomes. Pretty fascinating.

maybe with survival distributions? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survival_function

googling gives some results of scientific papers that would say this is the way its done.

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