You can see it reduced rate of improvement when you dig into the numbers:
2015 0.16 disengagements per 1000 miles
2016 0.13 disengagements per 1000 miles
2017 0.12 disengagements per 1000 miles
You can see it reduced rate of improvement when you dig into the numbers:
2015 0.16 disengagements per 1000 miles
2016 0.13 disengagements per 1000 miles
2017 0.12 disengagements per 1000 miles
2015: ~6250
2016: ~7692 (+1442)
2017: ~8333 (+641)
Personally, I think a self driving car with 1 notified disengagement per year as perfectly usable. Not so useful for the blind, but still very helpful.That said, even reporting the same number every year could still represent progress if they keep pushing the car harder. AKA, if 2015 = highway driving in the day with nice weather, 2017 = inner city driving at night in a snowstorm the same number of disengagements would still represent a lot of progress.
I mean, you can probably design autonomous "disengage" modes- hitting the emergency blinkers and heading for the breakdown lane is the extreme default. On a lesser level, the thing could just drive like I do. If a merge is too tricky? Just keep going straight, and recalculate on the next exit.
This is helped by that fact that modern cars seem to have pretty good "Just don't run into something" sensors already, and from my own experience as a bad driver with a decent accident record, not running into other things is most of the battle.
So yeah, I could totally see autonomous cars evolving the ability to safely get themselves off the road. Of course, you're still gonna need to do that a lot less often than every three thousand miles, but you don't have to get it to zero, just around the point where normal cars break down mechanically.
On top of that most situations with disengagement have not resulted in crashes. Really it's failing to pay attention during normal driving that's most often at fault, a 'buzzing you need to pay attention now' system solves most of the problems even if the car is not driving it's self.
It turns out to be significantly easier problem than full speed road traffic. Which IMO is why google gave up on that concept demo.
Funny, I interpret that as one guaranteed accident every year. Because by the time the autopilot disengages you can be sure the driver is after being lulled to sleep for the last 8000+ miles in no position to step into the situation in time to avoid a crash.
Self driving cars however have two goals, not hit anything AND got somewhere specific. It seems likely a car would disengage if it encountered a blocked road even if it did not hit anything. In that context we may see many cases where a car stops and 'gives up' which are in no way safety related and have no real safty risks.
While we don't nessisarily know the specifics, people have been testing these self driving cars for a while and yet crashing seems very rare even with unexpected handoffs.
It should remain in control until commanded to disengage. After all, blocked roads will be freed at some point and even if they don't it is the AI's problem to get itself out of any trouble that it got itself into. And even if a blocked road might seem to be free of safety risks that doesn't mean you can abandon the car there, you're supposed to stay in control of the vehicle until it is parked.
The only situation that I can compare disengaging with is when there is stopped traffic in the mountains and the snow moves in, that's one of those situations where you might be ordered by the authorities to abandon your vehicle and seek shelter (assuming this is possible and not less safe than staying with the car). Those situations can take many days to sort out afterwards. But in almost all other situations that normally would occur you should stay in and in control of your car, so I'd assume the same would go for an AI based system.
After that hand off someone can look at the test data and chose a better response, but caution when operating a deadly vehicle is causation is perfectly appropriate.
I feel pretty weird in the knowledge that people are operating vehicles with what to me comes across as barely out of beta software on roads shared with others.
I also don't think you can get to self driving cars without testing them on public roads. So far it's been very safe and potentially it's going to save millions of lives so I don't have a problem with this.
Further, these cars are not simply turning off in traffic they are making errors known while continuing to drive as safely as possible. That's vastly safer than suppressing errors which generally results in people ignoring them.