As someone involved in bitcoin since 2012, these cycles are pretty standard. It went from $1000 to around $250 iirc at one point and recovered. No reason it cant go from $20000 to $5000 and recover. It may take many years, but its not as if all crypto will die overnight.
I see crypto being big in the more distant future, 15-20 years away when many of the problems are sorted out. Everyone is focused on the extreme short term.
It could be, but it also could not be. Content free comment.
As for cycles: the big mistake people make when they see a cycle is to believe it will repeat forever.
Markets suck up information so as you sell an "overvalued" asset, the price continues to drop until it's no longer overvalued.
No one has figured out a way to repeatedly and constantly predict the market.
But I can see how holding large amounts of Bitcoin you want to shift could distort that perspective...
There are plenty of reasons why it could never recover. The previous cycles happened with a very different environment and context for bitcoin. This time Bitcoin has just hit mainstream. This cycle will very likely crush the mainstream's faith in Bitcoin to where it will never recover.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
Bitcoin is useless as a currency right now because of fees and transaction times. If that doesn't get fixed than what purpose does it serve?
"Cryptocurrency is a massive bubble" and "cryptocurrency and the tech behind it is a major innovation in distributed systems and finance" can both be true.