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Comment by majewsky | Hacker News Reader

Honestly, what makes you think that, given that multiple corps are saying that they will have autonomous cars on the road this year?

I can see how "this year" could slip into next year under unforeseen circumstances, but when your own prediction is so far away from the collective wisdom of an entire industry sector, it sure looks like a massive case of Dunning-Krueger, so you should have a very solid argument to support your prediction.

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No they're not or if they are it's with lots of caveats and limitations. In fact, Volvo, which has been one of the more aggressive companies in this space, has apparently moved back their plans. [1] I'm actually willing to believe that this space will develop faster than it looked a few years back. I note that one of the more skeptical AI researchers working on this, John Leonard, is taking a sabbatical from MIT to work on Toyota's self-driving initiative. But quicker to market is still probably at least 10-20 years. Perhaps just not "not in my lifetime" as Leonard said a few years back.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/14/16776466/volvo-drive-me-...

I think it will go much faster than people realise, because the big blocker to infrastructure changes that make self driving easier is the fact that there are no self driving cars. Once they have a foothold somewhere, with caveats and limitations, it's much easier to convince the neighboring city that with "only a few updates to these intersections" or "just a couple of beacons" or whatever, they can have self driving taxis too.

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