https://austingwalters.com/is-search-solved/
In which, I actually discuss the fact I think Google is not going anywhere, but... I do think their search algorithms are starting to breakdown.
However, it really doesn't matter. They have the market share, the money, and more importantely, the best search query parser (for the moment). Even if their searches do get worse and worse, people aren't going to jump ship.
So I fully agree, "Google doesn't need innovation", they simply need to keep users happy - which IMO they are doing well enough (although we've started to see cracks).