My point is that you can't say something "is worth it" without considering both costs AND benefits (I have recently seen friends get so ill they almost got fired because doctors ignored the side effects of prescriptions). Also, costs aren't zero just because they were prepaid or deferred.
Wrong calculation. The insurance company is trying to SAVE expenditures of doctors and hospitalizations; therefore, customers getting the flu shot cost the insurer less. Even further for herd immunity (the pt), 1 insured getting the flu shot might reduce 4-8 others from getting the flu.
Interesting point (not sure how far down a rabbit hole this can go...), so you are claiming that the introduction of flu shots has reduced insurance costs? Is it even possible to assess this or are there just too many confounds?
But it does objectively suggest that immunization is economically cheaper for insurers, with and without 100% immunization rates.
Obviously, there are many other factors in play as well but I don't think anything has been "objectively suggested" just because someone created a model that hasn't been (and probably will never be) tested.
Getting the flu, or having a more severe case of the flu increases your chances of 1) going to see a real doctor instead of a P.A 2) being mis-prescribed antibiotics 3) emergency room care 4) Torts originating from severe disease while in a Doctor's care
1 flu shot reduces probability of flu to ~70% of what it was before.
0.7 * Cost to treat average flu case + Cost Flu shot < 1.0 * Cost to treat average flu case
Insurance companies have pretty good stats underlying that sort of decision. At CMU this year, they were paying you to get a flu shot (in the form of a $5 gift card, with the flu shot being free).
Insurance, ultimately, is a way of sharing risk. Even more abstractly, it is about aligning interests. I think this is one part of why people get so upset with insurance when there is dispute - it feels a little like a betrayal.
I doubt current insurance companies care whether you get the flu or not. They just care whether you go to the doctor for it, eg if enough people think "It must be a cold" and self-medicate that works for them.