“The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus
scientificamerican.com
scientificamerican.com
I got the flu shot. My spouse did not. They ended up getting the full-blown flu with 103 degree fever and a positive flu test at the doctor. I, on the other hand, felt kind of crappy but I wasn't knocked on my feet and my temperature was normal the whole time. I asked our doctor if I essentially had a milder version of the flu because I got the shot and he said that was basically the case.
So get your shot! Get your shot for herd immunity, get your shot to (apparently) stave off the worst of the virus, get your shot, get your shot.
Still get your flu shot as it helps prevent spread and probably saved me a trip to the hospital. But don't expect to be immune.
A friend without shot who got the flu at the same NYE party as I did ended up needing to go to the doctor to get tests and tamiflu.
Interestingly, the doc was able to test for the specific strain (#2) and they were also entered into a national database.
I've heard differing opinions as to whether the shot really helps cases be less severe if you do get it, but I've heard a lot of similar stories recently.
I've never been more glad to live alone.
then, lots of research and crossed fingers that hope any flu's you are exposed to are the ones that you vaccinated against.
Don't flu shots work by giving you a mini-flu?
The CDC is recommending against the nasal spray this season, so chances are you'll get a shot, which contains only dead virus, which can't cause anything you'd describe as "mini flu" as a result.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.ht...
The flu shot seems to put me a bit under the weather for a couple of days after I get it. I don't have the flu, but I'm not 100% either.
> McDevitt and his colleagues screened 89 volunteers, 37 of whom tested positive for the flu and were asked to provide exhaled breath samples with and without a surgical mask. Among the volunteers, 43% exhaled large influenza-containing particles while not wearing a mask, compared to 11% while wearing a mask; 92% exhaled small influenza-containing particles while not wearing a mask, compared to 78% while wearing a mask. In addition, they found that the flu virus was 8.8 times more numerous in exhaled small particles than in large particles.
From what I understand that suggests that surgical masks are only slightly effective. But that study only tests surgical masks that don't filter particles less than 0.5 microns, and not N95 masks which can filter out particles as small as 0.3 microns.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/04/lab-study...
> A US-Chinese team of researchers created a simulated examination room with mechanized mannequins spaced 6 feet apart to represent coughing and breathing humans. They found that flu viruses floated between the two and were "inhaled" by the breathing mannequin, but that an N95 respirator sealed to the mannequin's face stopped 99.8% of them.
If that's accurate, it's pretty incredible. Out of paranoia I've sometimes worn surgical masks for viral transmission to the office during flu season, but it looks like I should be visiting Home Depot instead of Walgreens.
Besides infected people are contagious before they're symptomatic so no one would know to suggest they wear a mask. Early warning nasal swab? Pillow mounted HEPA filter? I'm not sure we know about enough about transmission to really understand how to prevent it...
"(a) A person is guilty of a misdemeanor when he wears a mask, hood, or device by which any portion of the face is so hidden, concealed, or covered as to conceal the identity of the wearer and is upon any public way or public property or upon the private property of another without the written permission of the owner or occupier of the property to do so."[1]
[1] https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2010/title-16/chapter-1...
How can you tell if something is "worth it" without considering any costs (side effects, price, time, etc)?
The vaccine this year is about 32% effective against H3N2 in the US and 39% effective overall [0]. That's not amazing but it's definitely "worth it" for a few dollars and 5 minutes at a CVS.
[0]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.ht...
What about side effects? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/vaccine/general.htm
I'm not going to continue replying to this conversation because I can sense that it's going to become unproductive
If the virus is too infectious you need very high rates of immunization for it to work.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
Most of the time those R0 values assume "well mixed populations" (any one person is just as likely to contact any other person) amongst other things, so don't take them too seriously. However, the basic idea that you don't automatically get herd immunity is simple enough. Eg, just what I found quickly on the topic:
>"Whether vaccination of healthcare personnel can lead to a herd effect reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza among patients is still inconclusive. Pooled data from a Cochrane review of 3 cluster randomized controlled trials showed no reduction of laboratory-confirmed influenza (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.44–1.68; p = 0.66), lower respiratory tract infections, admission to hospital (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.75–1.06), and deaths from pneumonia (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.45–1.49) in patients when healthcare personnel were vaccinated [35]. However, given that mathematical models suggest a herd effect [36], more rigorous studies need to be conducted." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3171704/
https://www.hrsa.gov/advisorycommittees/childhoodvaccines/Me...
My point is that you can't say something "is worth it" without considering both costs AND benefits (I have recently seen friends get so ill they almost got fired because doctors ignored the side effects of prescriptions). Also, costs aren't zero just because they were prepaid or deferred.
Wrong calculation. The insurance company is trying to SAVE expenditures of doctors and hospitalizations; therefore, customers getting the flu shot cost the insurer less. Even further for herd immunity (the pt), 1 insured getting the flu shot might reduce 4-8 others from getting the flu.
Interesting point (not sure how far down a rabbit hole this can go...), so you are claiming that the introduction of flu shots has reduced insurance costs? Is it even possible to assess this or are there just too many confounds?
But it does objectively suggest that immunization is economically cheaper for insurers, with and without 100% immunization rates.
Obviously, there are many other factors in play as well but I don't think anything has been "objectively suggested" just because someone created a model that hasn't been (and probably will never be) tested.
Getting the flu, or having a more severe case of the flu increases your chances of 1) going to see a real doctor instead of a P.A 2) being mis-prescribed antibiotics 3) emergency room care 4) Torts originating from severe disease while in a Doctor's care
1 flu shot reduces probability of flu to ~70% of what it was before.
0.7 * Cost to treat average flu case + Cost Flu shot < 1.0 * Cost to treat average flu case
Insurance companies have pretty good stats underlying that sort of decision. At CMU this year, they were paying you to get a flu shot (in the form of a $5 gift card, with the flu shot being free).
Insurance, ultimately, is a way of sharing risk. Even more abstractly, it is about aligning interests. I think this is one part of why people get so upset with insurance when there is dispute - it feels a little like a betrayal.
I doubt current insurance companies care whether you get the flu or not. They just care whether you go to the doctor for it, eg if enough people think "It must be a cold" and self-medicate that works for them.
You can use this number to estimate how fast a disease will spread, how likely it is to be successfully contained, or in the case of seasonal diseases, how many people will get it before seasonal societal changes (school getting out, people spending more time outside, etc.) will effectively curtail transmission for the year.
Looking at a vaccine on an individual basis, if it's only, say, 50% effective, that sounds pretty awful -- maybe almost not worth the bother. But on a society-wide basis, if every person were vaccinated, that would effectively knock the R0 value from 2 to 1, which is huge. Transmission is exponential: if you infect two people and they infect two people and they infect two people, etc., the total number of infected looks dramatically different than if everybody only infects one person. So in isolation it's only 50%, but societally, with high vaccination rates, there's a huge multiplicative effect that has the potential to dramatically reduce each person's risk of infection if vaccination rates are high enough. And that's still true even if it's even less effective than 50%, and has all sorts of economic and social consequences.
The R0 value refers to the potential for infection (ie in a 100% susceptible population it would be what you wrote).
>"But on a society-wide basis, if every person were vaccinated, that would effectively knock the R0 value from 2 to 1, which is huge. Transmission is exponential: if you infect two people and they infect two people and they infect two people, etc., the total number of infected looks dramatically different than if everybody only infects one person."
I just wrote a little SIR model and did not see this behavior. Depending on the parameters either 100% of the susceptible population was eventually infected, the infection died out quickly, or, if turnover was high enough (eg birth/death/viral mutation leading to a constant stream of susceptibles), there was a cycle and about the same number of people got infected either way.
Do you have a source for this behavior so I can see the details of the model?
Imagine all the people in the world as a graph with weighted edges representing the probability of one person transmitting the flu to another. The more people become vaccinated, the less the weights of the edges, and the less people get sick overall.
For the virus to propagate through a chain of 3 vaccinated people that comes out to 66%, an effect more than twice as effective as that of just the person getting the vaccine themselves.
(It's more complicated than that, especially since getting the flu isn't binary, but it should give an indication of how the effects scale.)
Is this true if the vaccine is ineffective against the strain which is circulating or is the effectiveness of the vaccine partly chance? Genuinely curious.
It seems that the only people I know who get vaccinated for something as benign as the flu are: nurses, teachers, children, elderly.
Everyone else simply take one or two day off during flu season in the event that they do catch it (most don't).
Am I missing something? I have never been vaccinated for it and asking around me, nobody at my current place of employment did either.
> Children younger than 6 months are too young to get a flu shot.
> People with severe, life-threatening allergies to flu vaccine or any ingredient in the vaccine. This might include gelatin, antibiotics, or other ingredients. See Special Considerations Regarding Egg Allergy for more information about egg allergies and flu vaccine.
The entire point of herd immunity is to make disease less likely to spread between individuals so that outbreaks don't occur in the first place. Even though the vaccine this year is less effective than normal at preventing the spread of flu, it's still pretty effective, and in a way that means that collectively it's more important to get vaccinated this year.
As for nobody at your place of employment getting vaccinated: these days that seems pretty surprising to me, but maybe it's a regional thing or something? My office brings in a nurse to do everybody at once.
My working-class parents would have certainly felt the impact on their budget spending ~$50/person for a shot that might not even work that year, not to mention the money lost by not working to go get the shot.
I think people should get their flu shots, but am a bit more hesitant to judge those who don't.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/28768407/
Vitamin D is relevant to proper functioning of immune system, however it seems that it is hard to find "the right amount" for everyone as it depends on several factors.
I'm wondering if Vitamin D intake can improve response against recurring infections like flu, sometimes they can bring you down several times in a season, so it takes quite a heavy toll on productivity and mood.
Anecdotally: I have seen a couple studies pop up recently talking about how daily value of vitamin D has been wrong for a long time. This makes me think taking vitamin D might be the new fad medical thing to do, kinda like how going gluten free was the big thing a couple years ago.
For transparency I have not read all of these but they all have popped up recently: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15867918 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16062697 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15877289 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15687217
[0]https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/vitamin-d-whats-right-le...
Alternative thoughts on adequate vitamin D: https://www.vitamindcouncil.org/i-tested-my-vitamin-d-level-...
Basically during Fall as the amount of sunlight drops our bodies vitamin D, for which there is clinical evidence that it helps with immunity, drops leaving us more susceptible to infections leading to the overall flu season starting in Jan/Feb time frame. As the sunlight picks up, vitamin D increases and flu season tapers off.
I take 2,000 IUs of extra Vitamin D a day and we all got the flu shot in September. From what I've read, this year's flu shot is largely ineffective.
This is a brutal flu. If you catch it, stay home and get rest.
Edit: I am taking 5,000 units daily. Didn't have the flu vaccine this year.
In my defense the parent comment was asking for anecdotal evidence.
I had a B strain last February, which was the sickest I've ever been. I got the flu shot this year (quadrivalent vaccine, though apparently not very effective) and I take at least 5,000 IUs of vitamin D every day (though I've upped that to 10,000+ IUs since my family got sick last week). I'm not sick yet this time around. Hoping against hope...
take care everyone
Luckily, we here at Trend Co. (YC Winter 2016) openly discriminate against seniors to such an extent that we employ none at all, so our trendy open office plan won't be nearly as big of a health hazard as it would normally be.
This looks promising: https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/18/health/flu-vaccine-design-stu...
I got the flu shot late last year, but it didn't help much against this strain. I'm just getting over it now. It's a quite a nasty cold.
To keep your coworkers from getting the flu, go home as soon as you think you might be coming down with something. The amount of virus you are shedding into your environment is nicely exponential in how bad you are feeling, with one exception: The day before you start feeling really bad, you are shedding nearly as much virus as when you are feeling worst.
If you have to choose, it's better to go home early and come back before you are feeling 100%, than it is to stay at work until you are certain you are sick and stay home longer. It's always better to shift your sick days earlier in the illness.
A waiter paid minimum wage + tips struggling to pay for cost of living/child care/debt/medical expenses/etc is likely to go to work anyway, putting the health of potentially hundreds of people at risk.
EDIT: 1 hour later, currently sitting at -1 - if you disagree so much that you feel the need to downvote, please explain why - I am genuinely curious!
Pretty sure I had the flu last week. Still showed up because I don't want to blow any of my precious 2 weeks vacation time. Got it from my coworkers anyway, who are probably thinking the same thing.
Would take a pretty big shift in US work culture to change any of this.
Please do NOT come back to work just because taking medication made you feel better. Too many people load up on daytime meds and show up to work exposing their co-workers needlessly to their illness. Don't be that guy, seriously.
Standard personal care applies. Hot showers are nice for getting clean and steaming out the lungs. Plenty of water, simple food to that's easy to digest.
Rest in bed or bundled up and watching TV or something if not sleepy.
To promote better breathing and deal with drippy ickies...
:
Go to your pharmacy, ask them how you get the REAL cold medicine that you've heard you need to show ID for.
https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1618:_Cold_Medici...
There are two drugs worth considering:
:
Night time (an hour or so before you want to pass out from exhaustion):
What used to be maximum strength over the counter Sudafed http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/pseudoephedrine
Sudafed has stimulant properties, they're an unwanted side effect but if you're REALLY sick you should be able to lay in bed for a bit breathing well and slip off to sleep; I suggest it before bed ONLY, since it tells the body to stop making mucus which allows for a good night's sleep without filling the lungs back up.
:
Day Time (take with your first meal (literal break-fast(ing))):
Under many brand names (often Mucinex) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guaifenesin promotes coughing up the stuff that is clinging to the lungs. Be ready to deposit the results somewhere sanitary.
I wish. I just can't do that. To quote The Faculty "I'm saving my sick days for when I feel better" When your only vacation for the year hinges on working while sick, you'll choose to struggle through it.
Now in my older and wiser years, I realize that they were probably the smart ones!