As long as Linux, postmarketOS or LineageOS are the "weird apps" geeks install for their friends' devices, I highly doubt they'll ever gain any real exposure outside of tech circles.
I can get a PC from 10 years ago and install Windows 10 and it'll most likely run absolutely fine - really rather well in fact. On the other hand, many people would probably be quite frustrated if they had to use a phone that's even three or four years old.
It amazes me how people react even when I tell them I'm still using an iPhone 6 Plus that I bought in 2015.
Marketers did a great job convincing people that they need to renew their phones every two years (or less)
Just like my bluetooth headphones. I had to re-solder a weak connection twice, but after adding some hot glue to keep it in place the second time, it hasn't broken anymore. The battery life is still better than advertised, and I've been using it daily for 3-4 years.
"Throwaway" is a culture, contributing to the problem just as much as (or maybe even more than?) planned obsolesce.
Do while the free phone went away (for this in the cell phone market, did plans get any cheaper?) the purchase styles didn't.
4.5 years is pretty good in this market - last I checked you were lucky to get 2 years of software updates from most android vendors. According to usage stats about half of all android phones are stuck on an operating system from 2014 or earlier[1]. I don't want to think about the security consequences of most android phones never having security updates installed.
4.5 years still is nothing on postmarketOS's 10 year target. Bravo.
[1] https://developer.apple.com/support/app-store/
[2] https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html
Just because phones run an old Android version, doesn't mean no patches get backported. For example, the official firmware for FP2 runs Android 6 with a patchlevel of (last time I checked) Dec 5.
Furthermore, other "postmarket OSes" such as LOS already extend life. The problem with these is firmware updates for chips, and hardware bugs.
It’s a bit of a separate problem but I’ve seen an awful lot of ignored software update notifications on the phones of relatives over the Christmas break. Is there data on the install rate of security hotfixes?