However I do agree with the second half of you post, the probability of some bird clearly appearing in some shot from some webcam somewhere in the world is very likely near 1.
However I do agree with the second half of you post, the probability of some bird clearly appearing in some shot from some webcam somewhere in the world is very likely near 1.
Of course, you need to know the prior probabilities in order to calculate the posterior probability distribution, and in this scenario, there doesn't appear to be a reliable way to obtain the prior probabilities, especially considering that there's only a single instance of the event we're looking at in the sample data.
But if you want to generalize about kinds of events, rather than a single specific one, it's useful to use past events as sample data to estimate probabilities of similar events occurring in the future (provided, of course, that you have defined meaningful categories for entities and events.)