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And how would you do that? Would the browser load every single page on a Google search and then badge?

You can't test a page's load speed from Google's servers and then expect it to load for the user in the same way.

Especially because one of the key points behind AMP is the use of CDNs, especially global ones (like Google's, Microsoft's or Akamai), which greatly speed up load times while also reducing traffic for the ISPs.

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Ok so it won't be perfect but it can be a very good approximate. They can benchmark the site from the user's city and use that value (hey if speedtest.net can have so many servers in every city I'm sure Google can arrange that too).

As far as CDN goes, nobody is stopping you from using it. If you want a site that rival's Google's AMP then you have to use a CDN. The only difference is now it's your choice what you use rather than being dictated to use their non standard tags and technology.

This. The web host is likely going to try to spoof a low load time by sending a fake page to Google's web crawler. Then it'll be an endless cat and mouse. Also, there are more than a few websites on the internet. It sounds fairly unreasonable to keep fresh numbers on page load times.

They might be able to crossreference the result from their crawler with metrics from Chrome users that opt-in.

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