Hacker News Reader

Comment by 11thEarlOfMar | Hacker News Reader

Historically, there have been a variety of reasons why electric cars did not take substantial market share. You likely know what they are: Range anxiety, lack of charging infrastructure, poor performance, funky styling, 'general dorkiness', .... The current independents have focused on these issues and in many cases, clearly eliminated them. Moreover, the market itself has evolved with the US in particular finally starting to wake up to environmental issues (T notwithstanding), and China making strident environmental policy out of pure desperation.

Add to the situation that a popular figurehead with a superhero alter-ego is leading the way with awe-inspiring (crash inducing) feats of science and technology, and I think we'll all be surprised at how fast electric vehicles become mainstream.

View on HN

To offer a slightly anecdotal counterpoint, if you discard ideological reasons and generous subsidies available in a few markets, I have no idea why anyone would buy an electric car right now. The range and the charging times are still an issue, especially if you don't live in California. The performance of most electric cars is abysmal (straight line speed may be all right, but cornering with the extra weight is just inferior) compared to traditional performance cars and while styling is subjective, the only electric car I've seen that wasn't outright ugly was the BMW i8, and that's a hybrid. That's not to mention the fact that they still carry a severe price premium in most markets.

I realize my opinion will be highly controversial in the HN bubble, but I find it to be very common in real life, particularly outside the U.S. Like any future prediction, I'm probably way off, but to me it looks like on the list of vastly overhyped car trends pure electric cars are second only to self-driving cars. I'm sure they'll find specific markets (taxis, urban deliveries, etc.), but I don't see myself switching to an electric car for at least a decade, probably more.

In the cities I've lived in over the last 15 years, probably 90% of the taxis have been hybrid. I've seen FedEx, and even Coca-Cola running electric delivery trucks in urban areas.

I think a wholesale shift from gas/diesel to electric is a long way off, but certainly it seems that electric/hybrid is the end of compressed natural gas vehicles.

Shenzhen just converted their entire bus fleet, 30,000 buses, to all electric.

Seattle, Vancouver, and other cities with abundant hydroelectric power have had electric bus fleets since at least the 1960's. Probably earlier. The only difference now is that instead of running wires overhead, you have to install charging stations.

Most non-car folk synonymize performance with acceleration, when in fact acceleration is arguably less important than braking and cornering.

After all, what good is being able to go fast in a straight line if you can't brake or carry that speed through the corners?

Exactly. And, with very few and very expensive exceptions, electric cars are useless at this. Electric cars have objective selling points, but I cringe every time I hear someone describe them as having "good performance".

Most mid priced ICE cars are also terrible at performance. Comparing a Leaf to a performance car like a BMW or Audi is nonsensical. They are targeted at completely different market segments.

Performance can also be relative, subjectively. My daily driver, a 2004 model 2.5L turbo diesel long wheelbase six-speed auto T5 Transporter, is at the workshop waiting to have a short length of wire that runs to the starter motor replaced. I'd do it myself, but talk about an inconveniently layed out engine bay. I digress. As far as vans go, it's fun to drive and has a bed in the back!

A friend loaned me her 1999 Vectra B[1] wagon, five-speed manual 2.2L 108 kW. Compared to the van, it corners like it's on rails! With myself behind the wheel of the Vectra I reckon I'd eat the E90 320i 115 kW[2] auto she replaced it with.

So, neither of these three vehicles are performance cars, but they're all quite fun to drive. Though I do toy with the idea of getting a Miata.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opel_Vectra#Vectra_B_(1995–200...

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_3_Series_(E90)#Petrol

Thirty five million people live in Florida, where the roads were laid out using graph paper, yet they still buy, and pay good money for, sports cars where the focus is on handling. The best bang for the buck here is acceleration.

I think you will be right, until there is another oil price shock. Then people will flip quickly, as electricity comes from domestic sources.

In the US, much of oil can be domestic, too. In Europe, things are pretty different (except maybe Norway).

But the price of oil is tied to the global market, regardless of whether it is produced in the US.

Only consumers in Western Europe pay ~2.5 to 3 times as much for fuel due to differences in taxation.[0][1]

[0] https://www.touring.be/nl/artikels/benzineprijzen-europa [1] https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

Electric cars are baller. They are fun to drive.

My Tesla Roadster does not corner like a Porsche 911, it's true, but it does not matter for everyday driving, because it is so effortlessly faster than anything else on the road, when I pull away from a stoplight, whoever I want to cut in front of is 50 feet behind me.

Instant acceleration is worth a lot, too.

For comparison: My previous car was a BMW M3. I would much, much rather drive my 2010 Tesla Roadster, and that is an old car at this point ... 2020 Tesla Roadster is going to be amazing.

> The range and the charging times are still an issue, especially if you don't live in California.

My roadster goes 340 miles on one charge. The upcoming 2020 Roadster goes 620 miles on one charge.

Admittedly, battery capacity costs money. Price-sensitivity is the reason most of these newly-announced cars don't have as much range. It is not a technical limitation.

And as with any such technology component, battery costs will continue to drop over time.

> Admittedly, battery capacity costs money. Price-sensitivity is the reason most of these newly-announced cars don't have as much range. It is not a technical limitation.

I disagree. The costs will drop, sure, but that's not particularly relevant for performance cars. The weight, on the other hand, will only increase with every bit of range you add. While electric cars can easily produce enough torque to still accelerate quickly (though how much range you'll really have driving that way is another question...), even with adaptive suspensions using magnetorheological dampers you can't cheat basic physics in corners.

And that's why I'd much rather have a BMW M3 (well, I'd prefer one of the AWD 911s, a V10 R8 or even an Audi RS4, but YMMV) than any electric car. Even if you value raw straight line acceleration that much, do note that the Tesla Roadster doesn't really compete with the BMW M3. You can get ICE vehicles with much better acceleration than an M3 that are still vastly superior in terms of handling to any Tesla.

> The costs will drop, sure, but that's not particularly relevant for performance cars.

Conversely, cost is highly relevant for non performance cars, which, from the perspective of displacing transportation petroleum use, are far more important.

Once the typical EV range reaches the limit that a person can comfortably drive without taking a long break (~300 miles?), range anxiety becomes a non-issue.

> Conversely, cost is highly relevant for non performance cars, which, from the perspective of displacing transportation petroleum use, are far more important.

Absolutely. I was responding to a post about performance cars, so I stuck to that.

> Once the typical EV range reaches the limit that a person can comfortably drive without taking a long break (~300 miles?), range anxiety becomes a non-issue.

I don't entirely buy the argument that range anxiety just goes away after some magic number. Charging times still impose constraints and require planning ahead, especially for longer trips. Even people who spend 99% of their time in short city commutes don't necessarily like the idea that they might not be free to just jump in their car and set off when they please.

Ultimately, no matter how far battery and charging tech advances, range and charging times will always be an objective disadvantage of electric cars vs ICE. When electric cars can actually outcompete ICE vehicles in price and other factors it may turn out to be a tradeoff most people are okay with, but we're not there yet.

>Electric cars are baller. They are fun to drive. My Tesla Roadster does not corner like a Porsche 911, it's true, but it does not matter for everyday driving, because it is so effortlessly faster than anything else on the road, when I pull away from a stoplight, whoever I want to cut in front of is 50 feet behind me.

See I drive a Miata and there is nothing like it in the electric car world. The way you zoom from corner to corner without slowing. It’s interesting that people say electric cars and fun , then quantify it by saying it’s really fast but saying nothing about the handling. The good thing about a balanced and good handling car is that you can enjoy it all the time whereas straight line speed is becoming increasing irrelevant due to traffic and zealous speeding enforcement.

Put it this way how many seconds of full throttle will get you banned?*

*in the UK where a speeding ticket of 100mph plus is a ban.

My last ICE car was a Mini Cooper JCW 6-speed. Still have it. I love it for it's power-to-weight ratio and it's "go kart handling".

Besides being a daily driver it's been autocrossed and tracked plenty of times.

I have Miata friends and listen to the way they describe how tossable their cars are with a glimmer in their eye. I've driven their Miatas and I'd take my Mini's handling any day.

My current daily driver is a Model S 100D (not the P100D) and it is insanely fun to drive.

As far as daily drivers go I'd choose the Model S over the Mini 99 days out of 100.

It's over TWICE AS HEAVY as the Mini but that weight is about a foot off the ground, the suspension is more than up to the job of handling 2.5 tons, and it has a near 50/50 weight distribution.

The Mini might corner like a go kart, but the Model S corners like its on rails. I have just as much "fun" driving the Model S around town as the Mini but the effort put in to doing so is a mere fraction.

You present your Miata as a "balanced and good handling car", and I assure you; a competent electric car is 100% both of those things while also being effortless in traffic.

I grew up as a "driver" which is why the Mini is never going anywhere and other enthusiast ICE cars have made their way through my stable over the years. It's why I still choose a manual transmission car where I have to spool up the motor 1 day out of 100. And I don't foresee electric cars being realistic choices for a track day any time in the next 10-15 years.

But anybody who truly believes they aren't already sufficient for 99% of the car-buying public's needs* because they aren't "fun" either hasn't given one a shot or is in irrational denial.

* - Trucks are a different matter, but Musk hopes to change that soon, as well...

> And I don't foresee electric cars being realistic choices for a track day any time in the next 10-15 years.

Why not? People are already taking Teslas to track days, and doing quite well with them. They're faster than the majority of random cars that people are already bringing to track days. That's why track days have performance classes, so you don't have Civics competing directly against (and getting trounced by) Ferraris.

I can't help but feel that this conversation is missing the forest for the trees. The vast majority of people need cars to get them from point A to point B. They are not automobile racing enthusiasts who demand extreme cornering performance. If this were the only thing holding electric cars back, then electric cars could easily get to 99.X% market share, at which point there are an insignificant number of ICE cars remaining.

>Put it this way how many seconds of full throttle will get you banned?

So your argument in favor of gas cars is that they are slow? Ok.

I had two Miatas, including one that I modified for autocross (SCCA CSP) and later turbo'ed. A Miata with 1.2 bar of boost is almost too much fun. Great cars! So I know what you are talking about.

About 4 years ago I leased a Chevy Spark EV, one of the most basic of tiny econo-hatches. I assume the gas one is pretty sad to drive. The electric one is brilliant. Instant silent thrust! One pedal driving! It was a revelation. I'm never going to buy another ICE car, they just don't drive right.

Try something like a Chevy Bolt or a Tesla and see for yourself.

Your Roadster was a $100k vehicle when it's new (almost 2x as much as a M3 of the same year), the next Roadster starts at $200k.

For a six-figure vehicle, they better be ballers!

Where is my performance EV that's a competitor to the Miata or the Camero for $30k?

It's nearing the end of the first inning of the electric car shift. The first inning is the introduction and infection of the idea that it's possible and then probable. Musk mostly took care of that. Since it's starting from expensive and moving down, your performance full-EV for a real $30k (non-tax credit dependent), is still at least ten years out. For now they're going to keep selling higher-end vehicles to wealthier people (Tesla etc) and smaller ugly vehicles to environmental buyers (Leaf, Bolt, etc).

The new Leaf isn't ugly at all, it looks quite good. Decent performance too.

> The performance of most electric cars is abysmal

The Leaf is the only car I have driven where the wife has said, "owe! stop doing that! my eyeballs hurt!"

I sense you may be bullshitting us.

For me, the biggest reason is not wanting to pollute the air in the city contributing to thousands of cancer deaths. Perhaps you think that's an "ideological reason". I find that rather sad, as to me it's clearly an ethical reason, which shouldn't be tied to a specific ideology. Unless you think if you're conservative, poisoning your fellow citizens is OK. I hope most conservatives don't think like that.

Anyway, other reasons are that electric cars accelerate more, won't be banned from cities like Paris, etc. any time soon, won't be affected by possible spikes in oil prices. Range and charging times are of course the biggest drawback, but it's getting better rather fast.

Modern petrol cars exhaust water vapor and carbon dioxide anyway.

I wasn't making an argument about ideology or ethics, merely pointing out that my post was focused on the immediately measurable objective characteristics of cars - price and performance. I do recognize that people often buy electric cars due to ethical or philosophical preferences, and that's fine. Personally, I'm not a conservative and am generally concerned about air pollution in cities, though I don't think new non-diesel ICE vehicles are a primary issue in that regard in most cities in the world (there are exceptions, as always).

Actually most new (<5 year old) petrol cars use direct injection which emits much more fine soot particles than diesel with particle filter. In EU particle filter for petrol cars is only mandatory from 2017. Also worrysome that most of the particles are of the ultrafine type which is the most dangerous in terms of cancer-risk etc. https://www.transportenvironment.org/press/new-petrol-engine...

Yes. Nobody doubts the future is electric (or partially fuel cell-based). But at least for the next half decade or so, we'll still see lots of internal combustion engines being produced. There will also still be some progress in making those engines cleaner and more efficient.

As a sidenote: that's why I liked platinum and rhodium as speculative investments in 2017 and I like them again for 2018. Platinum especially has been declared dead, exactly because of this "future is imminent" sentiment and nobody will supposedly need catalytic converters anymore. Platinum has been comatose for years on end now, despite production shortages and the supply side risk coming from South Africa's politics. Most platinum mines are operating at a loss.

To expand on something you stated, range is still very much an issue. How even "two hundred miles" became acceptable I will never know, apparently that is what marketing was told to push but the general public isn't buying into that.

Worse, that two hundred mile range is only good in mild to warm conditions. throw in winter conditions and it plummets. plus until automakers all adopt a higher voltage charging system similar to where Porsche is going adding range will just exaggerate how long it takes to charge.

Higher voltage charging is easier than higher amperage from both the size of cables internal and external as well as cooling. a trip in even the fastest available charging cars requires an hour diversion/stop per two hundred miles on average. this needs to get down to fifteen minutes with a range pushing beyond three hundred in winter.

instead of trying to encourage employers to install chargers at work more effort should be made toward the electrification of school and city bus lines. everyone who has ever been caught behind one knows the pollution factories they appear to be. initial up front costs will be high but it will keep districts insulated from volatile gasoline and diesel prices. delivery trucks already might be headed there but government investment into this area should be by example and where better than to have children on electric buses to tell mommy and daddy

I'll take 200 miles of range and the ease of plugging in every evening at home over 1,000 miles of range and the necessity of going to a gas station.

That works as long as you never need to drive more than 100 miles from home.

If I am doing that I probably want extra cargo capacity and will want to rent a van

Agreed. I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think. Nonetheless its an interesting article despite its slightly sniffy attitude to electrics because it highlights the scary predicament that the big automakers find themselves in.

I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think

Yes. That's the other thing: the best argument for an electric car is driving one—particularly a Tesla. The minute most of the population has access to one (from a friend, family, whatever), they're going to want one.

Yeah. I've got a couple of good old fashioned regular performance cars here in the SF bay area. I'd love to have the excuse (read: carpool lane access, long commute, whatever) to buy an electric but there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle.

That said, the penetration rate of electric vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles here is staggering. The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers. And I can see why -- if you want to plunk down all this cash for a new car, why not get something truly new, not something outdated?

My uncle is very frugal and has spent years looking at buying a new car and then up and ordered a (very base) Model S with the reasoning, if I'm spending all this money, I want to spend the money on future tech, not old tech.

Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date.

You might enjoy this tongue-in-cheek 'Test Drive of a Petrol Car' written by a Swedish Tesla owner back in 2015

http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/

That is fabulous!

It already feels out of date

More than that, after six years of Leaf ownership it feels downright primitive. In our ‘81 VW it’s acceptable because, hey, it’s an old vehicle. You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah. But in a modern $50K car? Turning mechanical gears to get that rattling contraption of an ICE going, gawd, I’m surprised you didn’t make me crank it by hand. To refuel it, I have to go out of my way to a specialist vendor? Not just plug it in when I get home?

Sounds silly unless you’ve owned an EV, but it truly represents my feelings even when driving our smooth, reliable Scion. But as the old canard goes, if I have to explain then you wouldn’t understand.

> You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah.

There is an argument to be made for this. In most new cars, whether ICE or electric, electric power steering racks have almost removed all feedback through the wheel.

Feedback is good, it communicates what the wheels are doing, what the road surface is like, what traction is like, etc... and I'd argue that good steering feedback is important for safe driving.

There is an argument to be made for this.

There most certainly is, for a tiny, tiny minority of people who buy cars. That’s why I used it as example. Picture the older middle-aged guy going on about how “cars back then..” until your eyes glaze (and if you’ve met me, you’ll have a working example). Yeah, nobody cares, old man, my ‘08 Corolla was cheap.

I already typed this before you deleted, so I’m putting it here. :-)

In summary, I think “feel” matters to a small number of people. To those that notice (I count myself amongst them), it’s pretty important. To the vast majority of drivers I think that as long as the car gets them to work it’s good enough.

The reason I used it as an example is because the ones I find that will argue the importance of “feel” are old, rambling guys like me. IOW, I was originally making of myself to some degree.

You could argue that it’s not that drivers don’t care for good steering feedback, but most drivers never get to experience good steering feedback and therefore don’t know what it is and how much it improves the driving experience. It’s kind of a Catch 22.

You've hit the nail on the head. I'm a performance fan who pulls his car apart to make it exactly the way I want. However, I recommend the 3 (once the price comes down a bit) to friends. If you want a car that makes transportation easy, Tesla is winning that race. I'd love to see other electrics catch up.

I bought an E46 M3 for mostly this reason (feel), and also because it's old enough I can still wrench on it. There's nothing like feeling the road in a car built for it.

I'm looking at getting an E46 330Ci and converting it to a track car. I found a fantastic example for £2,250.

Hmm, should I sell my ICE now before it becomes worthless?

Just got it last year too, ah well.

'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'

http://www.autonews.com/article/20171105/INDUSTRY_REDESIGNED...

> The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers.

In the US, Tesla's home market, yes. But if you go to Europe, it changes completely - those three models you listed average a combined annual European sales volume north of 300 000, which is more than the global total of all Tesla cars ever sold.

The only way Tesla will be anything but an SV-hype-fueled anecdote is if they can actually deliver on the Model 3 next year, and it ain't looking too peachy. I mean, GM's outselling them on chargeable vehicles in the US this year.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ says Tesla 40812, GM 38699. That's with only 712 Model 3s sold. If the 3 ramps at all, it will not be close.

Edit: GM 38699. I initially missed the 179 CT6s, 21 Spark EVs, and 17 ELRs at the bottom of the table.

If you just repeat the November numbers in December, you get GM higher. The Bolt and Volt is actually ramping up, while Tesla is flat.

December numbers will be available in a couple of weeks, and then we'll know for sure. Model 3 numbers have ramped up in December. In 2018, unless Tesla has serious unfixable production problems, it won't be close. I don't know how many Model 3s Tesla can make next year, but I know they can sell them all...

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

December: Tesla 9335, GM 5173

> all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning

but the cold-start is the best part!

reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exenWWOK_2o

  how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot

  [EDIT: extended quote to full clause]

Dude. The overnight LOW in SF Downtown was 49F, and I doubt anywhere in the Bay Area proper even hit 40F.

You need not wait longer than 15 seconds or so to put 'er in gear and go. This isn't Buffalo.

... the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot

You conveniently truncated the quote to change the issue. If they wanted heat, they have to wait longer than 15s.

I changed the quote to include the entire clause, but the concept still makes no sense to me in a Bay Area context (heck, I'm wearing shorts today).

How many EVs produce passenger heat in meaningful amounts immediately (even ignoring the added battery drain), and how much of a burden is 50+-degree in-car temperatures for a few minutes while you're already in outdoor clothing?

Few - Many electric cars use inefficient electric heat that draws as much battery power as the traction motors. Some have more efficient heat pumps, but not all. Regardless, heat is no more instant in an EV than a conventional vehicle.

Not to be technically correct, but electric heat is 100% efficient.

A heat pump can be more than 100% efficient in the sense you seem to be talking about. It transfers heat from one area to another, and can bring in more heat to a space than the energy used could produce in heat through a resistive heating element.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_pump

I think you were looking for this, http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/heatpump.h...

Sure, in some areas. But it's a pretty annoying drawback when temperatures hover around 0F and the car can't even start defrosting the windshield for 10-15 minutes.

The world isn't SF. Some of us do live in NY, and I can assure you, it does get actually cold here. It's snowing right now for instance.

The parent commenter did specifically write that s/he is "here in the SF bay area."

So? The majority of Teslas aren't sold in SF. Having access to instant-on heat, rather than having to wait several minutes for the engine to warm up, is absolutely a benefit in places with cold winters.

I'm trying to redirect the conversation back to things that matter. The weather in SF last night doesn't matter, not really; it's just some ephemeral fact, and not even worth arguing about whether someone "needed" instant-on heat for it or not. What matters is electric vehicle models and sales worldwide, which is what the top-level article is about. Tesla is the most popular car manufacturer in Norway. You better believe that they appreciate instant-on heat there (as well as remote start), and that Teslas having these features gives them a competitive advantage.

Does that make it less silly? I'm talking about the principles involved, not my lived experience. If it was merely a matter of being cold, you'd just say "put on another coat".

For your information, yes, I fire the car up, put on my seatbelt, close the garage door, put it in gear and go. But even in the mild bay area (it's been around 33-35 most mornings on the peninsula), I'm all the way across town before the coolant temp even comes off the low mark which is 124f, at which point SOME warm air starts coming out of the vents. But again, it's not a comfort complaint, it's a "electric cars make ICE cars seem dated" observation.

"there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle"

You mean no need in your life besides our shared need to reduce atmospheric carbon, oil extraction, and other automobile pollutants, to keep climate change to a level merely devastating rather than catastrophic, and to preserve a habitable planet for the generations to come?

I'm pretty sure your old car would have to be especially awful to make buying a new car — electric or not — the environmentally friendly option.

Junking an older car with a newer electric car won't decrease your carbon footprint but increase it. But if you are in the market to buy a car going electric or hybrid should be the way to go. Obama fuel efficiency rules were good but didn't go far enough by now car manufacturer should not be allowed to sell non hybrid fuel cars at all.

I travel about 400 miles per month by car in a vehicle that gets 25mpg. That's 16 gallons/month or 281.6lb of CO2 per month.

What's the break-even on how many lbs of CO2 I'd have to pump into the atmosphere before it was more environmentally friendly to produce an entire new automobile with 800lbs of batteries?

I thought the killer feature of electric cars is recuperative braking. So I suppose that a reasonably lightweight electric car should be perfect for city commute with constant start / stop on traffic lights, and for congested roads of SV.

Long commute, OTOH, seems favorable for a well-built ICE car.

> Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date.

The way we northerners deal with that is to have a remote starter installed in our car. By the time we're done putting on our coats and shoes, kissing our wives, and brushing the accumulated snow off the car, the heater is blowing hot and it is fairly comfortable inside. I will grant that this does burn some gas, but how much range in comparison does an electric car sacrifice by heating the cabin off battery power over your entire commute?

If your car is plugged in it can use wall power to pre-heat before your commute, similar to remote start.

Pre-heating is great, but if your commute is very long it can't make much difference. Traditionally, vehicles are very poorly insulated and it isn't a big problem because their heat is a free waste product. Electric vehicles really need a level of insulation they haven't even considered yet.

I'm not sure how that would work. So far I see these obstacles/concerns:

1. Range. Right now I can drive ~400 miles on a fill. Can I get even close to that in EV?

2. Refills. I am pretty sure wherever I go, there would be a gas station within tens of miles. And I'm pretty sure most maps or GPS devices I would have would be able to point me to it. With electric car, not only I have to worry about finding charging station (or even plan the trip around its presence) but I'm not even sure how to find one. Would my GPS device show it? Would it work with my car (Tesla ones e.g. work only with Teslas)? Would I need some kind of subscription/registration to access it? I imagine being anxious about these things would be pretty annoying (unless it's already solved somehow - I have no idea).

3. Do I need to have charging station at home? What if I move - would I need to get a new one or pay to move it? What if I need to go somewhere at night and the car isn't charged yet? Would I need to buy special "fast charge" station? What if one day I'm too tired at the evening and forget to plug in the car for the night?

4. With ICE car, I am sure any competent mechanic would be able to take care of the most problems with my car. Electric cars are new, most mechanics had no training for them and no experience with them, and manufacturing solutions and practices would be very non-uniform - how I find the good service and how I make sure he doesn't use relative scarcity on the market to fleece me?

5. If I want to sell this car, what would the resale value be? Would I be able to resell it at all, or would it be the analogue of 5 year old smartphone, worth tiny fraction of the premium price it fetched only recently?

6. Wouldn't buying now, when the technology is still developing, lock me in with inferior first-try technology while superior one will show up in 5 years and make my car not only look like Flintstone's carriage but also drive its resale value down and maybe make it unusable due to chargers switching to newer superior standard of something?

I'd like to hear how these concerns are resolved.

1. My EV (Tesla Roadster, updated battery) goes 340 miles on one charge. Admittedly it is a small car. The new Tesla Roadster slated for 2020 goes 620 miles on one charge. Admittedly that is an expensive car. But you should be able to get good range in a less-expensive car at that point.

2. Newer Teslas (Model S, Model X, Model 3) have charger planning built into their standard map program. About other EVs, if I were an EV manufacturer I would do a license deal with Tesla to allow my cars to use their charging network. But maybe they'll build their own. The one Tesla built is pretty good ... if a small company can do that, GM can do way more, and do it faster. So even though "there's no infrastructure" has been raised as this huge problem for years, it does not in actuality look like much of a problem.

3. Good electric cars have their own charging circuitry built in, so you just plug it into the wall. You can even charge off 110 volts, though it takes a long time. A dryer socket is much more reasonable. Just being able to plug in your car, in your garage, is much more convenient than going to a gas station. (This presumes you have a garage to park in. If you park on the street, different story.)

4. Electric motors and drivetrains are much simpler and much more robust than mechanical engines and drivetrains. Electric cars just do not tend to need repair in the same way. (I have had my car for over 7 years and it has never yet needed a repair of this kind).

5. Tesla Roadsters still hold their value very well, considering. But this may be in part due to the fact that it's a rare car. I am not sure about the Leaf, etc.

6. Maybe, yeah.

Gonna be weird when all the gas stations start to close up.

Also when we go all self-driving and we don't need parking lots anymore.

We should figure out good uses for them before they turn into a yuppie bar with condos on top.

What's wrong with bars and condos?

1. Tesla Roadster is a luxury car. It is literally order of magnitude more expensive than a common middle-class car. There's no possibility it can ever be considered as a replacement for common cars. As a toy for rich people with money to burn - sure, why not. But if we're talking about people not spending 200-250K on a car - which is vast majority of drivers - there's no point in considering such cars.

2. Again, Tesla is a luxury car, so describing it when talking about replacing common cars is pointless. Even the cheapest one is sitting on very top of what common middle-class car could cost, and it's not even released. If you want to replace common cars, you can't have cheapest model to cost $35K. There's literally no possibility most people would be able to afford that.

3. Charging from 110V would require whole night and even more. My house has one (1) dryer socket, which surprisingly is occupied by the dryer. Which leads one to think to have such car one has to undertake a costly (min. hourly rate in CA is about $100) project requiring a contractor, licensed electrician, permits, etc. And if one lives in an apartment which doesn't have built-in charging station - no chance.

4. Great to hear it, but again that was Tesla, as I understand. Can I expect the same from a car that doesn't cost six figures? I don't know. And the fact that it's simpler doesn't help much if the mechanic doesn't know it. Well, maybe it'll break down less, but we need to find out if that's still true for cheap models used in mass-driving conditions.

5. That's exactly my point - there's no developed market, so very little can be said about how it would look like. Sure, luxuries are always valued by people who are into luxuries and have money to spend. But about non-luxury market, that's different.

There are a lot of electrics that aren't luxury cars and have range in 100-200 mile range. Most gas cars I've seen have a 300 mile range befor refueling..

The thing about an electric if you park at home the tank is always full in the morning. No more stopping for gas in the daily commute. Long road trips are a different story.

1. Sure, Tesla's whole plan, since the foundation of the company, was to start out making expensive cars and then to continually make them cheaper until they are completely mass-market. They have consistently followed this plan. So I don't see why you think they'd suddenly stop?

2. See 1.

3. Actually charging from 110v would take more than overnight -- several days at least if you are empty! It's very slow (it's a lot slower than half a 220v because a certain amount of power goes to overhead like cooling the batteries during charging). Even so, I got by on 110v for years. As for having (1) dryer socket ... buy a splitter cord for 5 bucks? I am not sure why you think you need a contractor and permits, unless you are just trying to fabricate reasons why electric cars are a problem.

4. See 1.

5. The market today is tremendously more developed than it was in 2008 when Tesla started selling their first car, and everyone thought electric cars were just golf carts that were completely infeasible. Why do you think this trend would stop now? On the luxury point ... see 1.

1. Surely, and if they ever have a $15K model, or even $20K model, my estimate about how soon the transition would happen would change. As of now, I think the pricing points are such that only rich (and rich by SV standards, which are significantly higher then the rest of the country) people can afford it. So the transition has no way of happening. I am not saying it will never happen - I am saying it's not nearly close now.

3. I am speaking from experience of what doing non-trivial stuff takes. E.g., installing AC requires permits. Maybe installing proper (not "more than overnight") charger does not, if it's just using a splitter cord then it's good news.

5. I do not think it will stop now. I think it's still far from where we could see mass transition from ICE to electrical cars. In 10 years? Sure, why not. Right now? Don't see it.

So these things you mention are the reason why it hasn't happened already. There's quite wide agreement that the changeover to electric is going to happen, which implicitly means these things will be addressed. The question is whether it will take 5 years, 10 years or 20 years.

1. Range: There are cars on the market now for $35k that have 200+ mile range. Range will continue to go up and price will continue to come down for the next few decades. Whether 200 miles is enough depends on your point no. 2 so...

2. Generally, you plug your car in at night and start each day with 100% range. For most European lifestyles 200 miles in a day will deal with 95% of days. Granted, the US is more spread out so people drive further. But the crucial point is that 'going to the gas station' doesn't really have an equivalent with electric. On a long journey you recharge at highway stops, but the rest of the time you just charge at night. Highway chargers are fast and charge times are generally 20 to 40min to get to 80% range. I generally find that by the time I've got the kids out the car, had a wee, had a snack, the car is ready to go.

3. Yes ideally you need a charging station at home. In my country you get a 500 GBP grant from the government which covers the cost of installation in most cases. chargers are fairly simple to install. Granted, houses with no off-street parking are tricky.

4. Generally there are a lot fewer moving parts and less to go wrong but yes we will need mechanics. As more electric cars are sold, I expect more electric mechanics will appear.

5. True, resell for say Nissan Leaf is not that good, due to rate of improvement of new models over the old ones. Teslas hold their value quite well I hear, it remains to be seen how the Tesla model 3 will go. A lot of people buy their cars on 3 year PCP contracts in which the manufacturer offers to re-buy the car at 50% price after 3 years, I guess a lot of people might do that?

6. Yeah a bit, e.g. my 2016 Leaf isn't as good as the 2017 or 2018 one. But now that we've cracked 200 mile range (Bolt and Tesla Model 3) I think we're in the 'good enough' space. Chargers are fairly settled, there are 2 or 3 standards that are widely supported and are not expected to change that much over the next few years. Adapters are generaly available to make most cars fit most chargers. Speeds and power of chargers will increase but the existing standards allow for that.

I think gasoline engines will stick around much longer than most people expect. They are a known commodity and many people have invested time and money into learning how to operate and maintain them. For example it's been brutally cold where I live lately and I know my gasoline engine works just fine in these conditions. If it fails to crank I know how to jump start it. I know to let it warm up a bit before turning high RPMs. I don't know anything about how electric cars would fare in these cold conditions. They may work just fine too but I have no experience to back that up. I'll learn at some point but a lot of people never will.

I agree, I think we have at least another one, perhaps two decades with gasoline engines. The sad news is that displacement will continue to get smaller, even in sports cars. The transition from the Porsche 981 to 718 is a great example of how to ruin the perfect sports car.

FYI, in cold weather this is what you need to do with an electric car:

1. Turn it on

2. Drive off

Optionally, step 0: Use the app on your phone to tell the car to warm up, defrost the windscreen etc while you are in the house having breakfast.

Range does suffer in cold temperatures; similarly ICE engines are less efficient in cold temperatures.

Building on your "lack of charging infrastructure," I think it's worth noting that there has been a huge shift from owning to renting in the last decade or so. It's easy to add an electric charger to a house you own, but if you rent the house or apartment, it's not going to happen.

If you live in a newer apartment building, you might get lucky and they'll have chargers in the parking garage. But when I lived in such a building in Chicago, the chargers were ALWAYS full. It was a large building, and there were probably 40 or 50 of them across a five-story garage.

Both California and Illinois mandate by law rentals allowing you to install a charger (at your cost). Other states have similar legislation pending.

That doesn't seem like a very good deal, though. You have to pay a sizable chunk of cash to improve somebody else's property and insure it for a million dollars. That is a much worse proposition than installing a charger in your house. I'm not sure how useful it is to your average renter who is just looking to buy a car.

It’s a happy medium until we can improve on the situation.

Installing a home charging station costs around $2000 these days. If you're buying a $30-60k car and move infrequently it won't be that huge of a portion of the total cost of ownership of the car.

And a dryer outlet, which is plenty for home charging, is just a fraction of that much.

Since I had room in the panel for an additional breaker installing a level 2 EVSE (charger) on the driveway side of the house was only $350. I paid $550 for the charger itself. Total cost $900. Offsetting that: - $500 rebate/credit from GM for buying a Chevy Spark EV and a charger. - $500 cash from PG&E - $150 or so federal tax credit - Increased value of my house with EV charger.

Overall, I think I made about $500 on this install.

Best part, I haven't been to a gas station more than a dozen times in the last four years. I love not going to gas stations.

>I haven't been to a gas station more than a dozen times in the last four years.

Where do you buy your Andy Capp Hot Fries?

I thought it was interesting that the article focussed on trends in the US market, which seems the least EV-friendly (from what I hear, fuel prices are half what they are in the EU).

I think cost is a big one too. Nearly all electric cars in the US could be considered 'Luxury' by price tag. The Leaf is an exception, but it also scores high on the factors you've listed so its lukewarm reception is understandable.