The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers

http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/

More than that, after six years of Leaf ownership it feels downright primitive. In our ‘81 VW it’s acceptable because, hey, it’s an old vehicle. You know, back when you could really feel what a car’s doing, blah, blah, blah. But in a modern $50K car? Turning mechanical gears to get that rattling contraption of an ICE going, gawd, I’m surprised you didn’t make me crank it by hand. To refuel it, I have to go out of my way to a specialist vendor? Not just plug it in when I get home?

Sounds silly unless you’ve owned an EV, but it truly represents my feelings even when driving our smooth, reliable Scion. But as the old canard goes, if I have to explain then you wouldn’t understand.

In the US, Tesla's home market, yes. But if you go to Europe, it changes completely - those three models you listed average a combined annual European sales volume north of 300 000, which is more than the global total of all Tesla cars ever sold.

The only way Tesla will be anything but an SV-hype-fueled anecdote is if they can actually deliver on the Model 3 next year, and it ain't looking too peachy. I mean, GM's outselling them on chargeable vehicles in the US this year.

but the cold-start is the best part!

reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exenWWOK_2o

  how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot

  [EDIT: extended quote to full clause]

You need not wait longer than 15 seconds or so to put 'er in gear and go. This isn't Buffalo.

You mean no need in your life besides our shared need to reduce atmospheric carbon, oil extraction, and other automobile pollutants, to keep climate change to a level merely devastating rather than catastrophic, and to preserve a habitable planet for the generations to come?

Long commute, OTOH, seems favorable for a well-built ICE car.

The way we northerners deal with that is to have a remote starter installed in our car. By the time we're done putting on our coats and shoes, kissing our wives, and brushing the accumulated snow off the car, the heater is blowing hot and it is fairly comfortable inside. I will grant that this does burn some gas, but how much range in comparison does an electric car sacrifice by heating the cabin off battery power over your entire commute?

2. Newer Teslas (Model S, Model X, Model 3) have charger planning built into their standard map program. About other EVs, if I were an EV manufacturer I would do a license deal with Tesla to allow my cars to use their charging network. But maybe they'll build their own. The one Tesla built is pretty good ... if a small company can do that, GM can do way more, and do it faster. So even though "there's no infrastructure" has been raised as this huge problem for years, it does not in actuality look like much of a problem.

3. Good electric cars have their own charging circuitry built in, so you just plug it into the wall. You can even charge off 110 volts, though it takes a long time. A dryer socket is much more reasonable. Just being able to plug in your car, in your garage, is much more convenient than going to a gas station. (This presumes you have a garage to park in. If you park on the street, different story.)

4. Electric motors and drivetrains are much simpler and much more robust than mechanical engines and drivetrains. Electric cars just do not tend to need repair in the same way. (I have had my car for over 7 years and it has never yet needed a repair of this kind).

5. Tesla Roadsters still hold their value very well, considering. But this may be in part due to the fact that it's a rare car. I am not sure about the Leaf, etc.

6. Maybe, yeah.

1. Range: There are cars on the market now for $35k that have 200+ mile range. Range will continue to go up and price will continue to come down for the next few decades. Whether 200 miles is enough depends on your point no. 2 so...

2. Generally, you plug your car in at night and start each day with 100% range. For most European lifestyles 200 miles in a day will deal with 95% of days. Granted, the US is more spread out so people drive further. But the crucial point is that 'going to the gas station' doesn't really have an equivalent with electric. On a long journey you recharge at highway stops, but the rest of the time you just charge at night. Highway chargers are fast and charge times are generally 20 to 40min to get to 80% range. I generally find that by the time I've got the kids out the car, had a wee, had a snack, the car is ready to go.

3. Yes ideally you need a charging station at home. In my country you get a 500 GBP grant from the government which covers the cost of installation in most cases. chargers are fairly simple to install. Granted, houses with no off-street parking are tricky.

4. Generally there are a lot fewer moving parts and less to go wrong but yes we will need mechanics. As more electric cars are sold, I expect more electric mechanics will appear.

5. True, resell for say Nissan Leaf is not that good, due to rate of improvement of new models over the old ones. Teslas hold their value quite well I hear, it remains to be seen how the Tesla model 3 will go. A lot of people buy their cars on 3 year PCP contracts in which the manufacturer offers to re-buy the car at 50% price after 3 years, I guess a lot of people might do that?

6. Yeah a bit, e.g. my 2016 Leaf isn't as good as the 2017 or 2018 one. But now that we've cracked 200 mile range (Bolt and Tesla Model 3) I think we're in the 'good enough' space. Chargers are fairly settled, there are 2 or 3 standards that are widely supported and are not expected to change that much over the next few years. Adapters are generaly available to make most cars fit most chargers. Speeds and power of chargers will increase but the existing standards allow for that.

I disagree. The costs will drop, sure, but that's not particularly relevant for performance cars. The weight, on the other hand, will only increase with every bit of range you add. While electric cars can easily produce enough torque to still accelerate quickly (though how much range you'll really have driving that way is another question...), even with adaptive suspensions using magnetorheological dampers you can't cheat basic physics in corners.

And that's why I'd much rather have a BMW M3 (well, I'd prefer one of the AWD 911s, a V10 R8 or even an Audi RS4, but YMMV) than any electric car. Even if you value raw straight line acceleration that much, do note that the Tesla Roadster doesn't really compete with the BMW M3. You can get ICE vehicles with much better acceleration than an M3 that are still vastly superior in terms of handling to any Tesla.

See I drive a Miata and there is nothing like it in the electric car world. The way you zoom from corner to corner without slowing. It’s interesting that people say electric cars and fun , then quantify it by saying it’s really fast but saying nothing about the handling. The good thing about a balanced and good handling car is that you can enjoy it all the time whereas straight line speed is becoming increasing irrelevant due to traffic and zealous speeding enforcement.

Put it this way how many seconds of full throttle will get you banned?*

*in the UK where a speeding ticket of 100mph plus is a ban.

For a six-figure vehicle, they better be ballers!

Where is my performance EV that's a competitor to the Miata or the Camero for $30k?

And, last year we bought a new ICE Civic for $22k it averages 33mpg according to its computer.

I have friend who bought a Leaf in Seattle. She was always jonesing for a charge because her apartment didn't have access to power in the parking lot. Nor did her workplace. Not sure what she was thinking.