But isn't that one of the hopes of cryptocurrency -- that it can survive a state collapse, because the relatively normal currency manipulation leading up to said collapse would be less (or not at all) viable? I feel like that was the spirit of OP's tongue in cheek remark and it's going over everyone's heads.

Also (this is pedantic) but many metals _do_ have intrinsic value (ex copper wiring or gold plated connections). It's slightly meaningful because (among other things, like its relative scarcity) has helped those metals be used as relatively stable currency in the past.

Also, why does our currency need intrinsic value? It represents a debt owed and can be exchanged for things with intrinsic value. The reason dollars, yen, pounds, euros, silver, metal and gold have value is both a social and a legal contract. Cryptocurrencies may have some social contracts that give them value but they lack the legal contract. That's why I think they are doomed unless they open themselves to regulation.

The demand for USD is cyclic in nature (IANAEconomist, I just made that term up), in that, I need money to buy food, my employer needs me to make them stuff, my employer's customers need my employer's product for their processes, etc.

The dollar certainly has had 30% "shocks" in a year compared to gold, which is the usual standard. Most famously, obviously, 1971, but there have been more normal years with such changes as well.

You could also say that the US dollar is really backed by the US economy. Well, the US economy is S&P500 + a few percentage points. Well that has dropped, and gained more than 30% in a year as well (depending on the foreign currency you use to measure this, or if you're talking in gold price, we've seen 60% drops happen. Of course the S&P 500 is worth more than all the gold in the world, so ... this is a bit of an artificial thing to do. Truth is that if someone started buying the S&P 500 using large quantities of Gold, that wouldn't work, so perhaps that is actually right).

Shocks is between quotes because they weren't really shocks. Everybody in finance was perfectly aware of the "real" price for the US dollar, in 1971, but political hubris and re-election factors did not allow the government and congress to admit to this, until every other avenue was exhausted, including lying, cheating (not charging the same price to everybody despite their own laws demanding they do so), fraud, and so on.

Or to put it another way, one might even make the comment that the dollar lost such amounts against gold for the worst possible reason : a refusal by the US government to settle debt for the agreed price (specifically, as has come out, the refusal of the US government and the congress to honor the agreed-upon exchange rate the French government demanded they pay). Surprisingly when I tell my bank that my loan is now only against half my house, such flexibility is not extended to me, and congress in fact has laws preventing this ... weird, since they clearly see it perfectly moral & valid to do this themselves, and even to do it to pay off (their favored) banks.

30% changes in the value of the dollar have happened before, and in all likelihood, will happen again. Granted, it's been a while.

I tend to believe those who say bitcoin will not last are right, but right not it is a currency. Not the most useful one, but there are countries with a real currency that is not very useful.