So how does a bubble in Bitcoin pop? Since there's no real underlying value does it just take the spread of the idea that Bitcoin is a bubble?
The big questions are if that's ever going to happen, and if so, when?
Unless you've got a time machine or have cornered the market, though, I'm not sure how you could ever know.
With bitcoin though, I don't see a good way to say bitcoin "is overvalued, here's x, y, z that explain why it's overvalued." There's really no explanation for it's value at all, that's the aspect of bitcoin that resembles a currency.
It really is as simple as other posters are saying: when there are more buyers than sellers, the price goes up, and when there are more sellers than buyers, the price goes down. The reason for there being more sellers than buyers could be as simple as people losing interest and moving onto the next shiny thing. You can't eat either gold or bitcoin, so in the absence of continued attention, there's natural selling pressure.
I suppose you're trying to guess why those first sellers would sell? Seems like a pointless exercise. There could be any number of reasons. A mysterious authority figure convincing them that BTC is overvalued is just one (unlikely) possibility.
There are already problems withdrawing from exchanges, if a mass of people panic and want out, it could trigger a run on the exchanges, some of which are rumored to be running some kind of fractional reserve.
All it’s going to take is a few grannies losing their retirements for the congressional hearings to start, etc.
I think it can probably still double or triple from here, so I’m not gonna try and call the top, but chronologically, I don’t think it’s too far off—6-9 months is my guess.
At some point in time. The price of one single coin will be bonkers to the point of disbelief. Round about the same time, there won't the next set of greater fools to drive the prices any more up.
Then a good deal of people will want out. Demands comes down, supply goes up and prices come crash down.
At the end people just sit down and realize along the way it generally never was a good idea to be playing this game at all.