We see a lot of back-of-the-envelope math about total costs. Eg FastCompany has a post [1] that suggests total costs today [with more-or-less publicly available equipment] would be about $300k.

I think if it remained north of $200k, it would be viable for kind of specific applications [eg truck driving] where you're replacing modestly compensated workers over many years. [truck drivers have a median compensation of $40k by a quick search, and hopefully the equipment would have an average expected lifespan of >5 years with nominal maintenance]

However, multiple companies at this point are claiming very inexpensive LiDAR units [2] [3].

If you assume costs drop to $100k [including maintenance] for a self-driving car, now three years of driving a truck would pay for itself [and taxis wouldn't be far behind].

In [1], analysts estimate costs will be down to $10k total by 2025. At that point, car ownership will be dramatically different. Analysts discuss the confluence of electrification, servicification [of rides], and self-driving cars to be kind of unpredictable. Each of these would be a massive shakeup for the industry, and the combination will be pretty interesting to watch.

[1] https://www.fastcompany.com/3025722/will-you-ever-be-able-to...

[2] "Reduced cost of LiDAR by 99%" https://medium.com/kylevogt/how-were-solving-the-lidar-probl...

[3] Waymo claims <$10k: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-i...