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Comment by 0xcafecafe | Hacker News Reader

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0xcafecafe·

Exactly, it is the tulip craze of our time and a textbook case of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

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There never was a real tulip fever.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-...

A more recent example would be the Beanie Baby craze of the 1990s. People were paying ~$5000 in some cases for stuffed toys, just based on rarity and speculative value. According to the article below, it was estimated that 64% of American households had at least one.

What happened in the end? The value crashed, of course, and a lot of people lost all their money.

https://nypost.com/2015/02/22/how-the-beanie-baby-craze-was-...

If it's so obvious, why don't you buy a futures contract to short it and reap your rewards in a year or two?

You can make millions of dollars if you're right.

I cannot as the market can remain irrational for a far longer time than I can remain solvent.

But that's an issue. I agree nobody really knows. But the believers at least have small holdings. Where as skeptics give reasons, which may be true, but only time will tell.

May be search for an Ethereum contract, which allows betting against Bitcoin. Solidity new hack discovery permitting, you can make a small killing. Would be nice way of making a point with some skin in the game.

You don't even need a smart contract, the CME will be starting to sell cash settled BTC futures in two weeks:

http://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2017/10/31...

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