Looking at their cash flow statement, they are spending a lot but mostly on capital expenditures.
I don't see any reason to even think about bankruptcy. They're doing fine.
https://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii...
Looking at their cash flow statement, they are spending a lot but mostly on capital expenditures.
I don't see any reason to even think about bankruptcy. They're doing fine.
https://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii...
The only way Tesla avoids bankruptcy is if the markets keep believing in the Elon magic, because the operations are definitely not financing the investment required.
This is the key thing people miss when people falsely compare Tesla to Amazon. Amazon has always been free cash flow positive. They may never have turned a GAAP profit for many years, but they weren't issuing stock to finance their growth.
Tesla is on track to burn >$500m/quarter going forward and will once again have to access capital markets in 2018. Junk bond markets have been puking for the past 3 months, so that option probably is getting less likely. That leaves equity dilution. Not good for current shareholders. http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20171103/APA8Q22CZM22D262222M...
A lot of the "Assets" noted on the balance sheet are the reservation costs for all of Tesla and Solar City's promised products. Tesla recently laid off a significant portion of their workforce at the Model 3 factory. Output was much lower than they had guided to for the quarter. It doesn't look like that's going to change soon. If customers start demanding refunds a lot of the assets listed on the balance sheet go away.
The liabilities on the other hand, won't be going anywhere.
People can insist that Tesla is effecting some positive changes in the world, but it seems to me that mostly they have been good at repackaging and reselling the tech of other companies in creative ways.
I've seen this critique leveled at Apple and it makes more sense there (the Mac borrowing heavily from stuff they witnessed at Xerox PARC and the original iPhone just doing what a lot of other phones at the time were doing, except simpler and more mass-adoptable), but what evidence do you have for this applying to Tesla? Even if you admit that battery technology improvements that made EVs viable were implemented elsewhere, the entire automotive industry was 100% behind the combustion engine before Tesla, and now almost every car company is building EVs. This isn't merely Tesla effecting "positive change in the world", they proved that EVs were manufacturable, that the public wanted it, and solved numerous obstacles to actually bring it to market. The EV would literally not exist (to the public) in 2017 if not for Tesla. How is that merely repackaging tech?
According to wikipedia a rather well known EV Nissan Leaf predates Tesla Model S by 2 years. First hybrid Toyota Prius is 20 years old. Toyota had concepts of plug-in hybrids for quite some time. Countless local teams make electric swaps. We had electric golf cars and what not for quite some time.
What Tesla more or less pioneered is premium class performance EV and proved that there is market in this segment. They proved that not only "convenient home-work-home trip" (free parking, bus lanes, subsidies) can be market for EVs.
Tesla is not Apple though. In order for the analogy to Apple to work, Tesla would have to be shipping a massive amount of EVs (and a growing amount as well) while they were being criticized. They haven't. In fact the penetration of EVs as a % of all cars sold is single digits.
If you want to take the perspective of the author of the article, then we can at least say that Tesla may have induced rival car makers to at least get interested in EVs and demonstrated a small market exists for them, but it's not clear that once every automaker begins shipping EVs at scale that it's going to replace non-EVs in the market in a significant way. What if EVs just top out at 20%?
On another level it's kind of a silly perspective to take because real people have invested their money in Tesla. A lot of them might be rich tech workers who no one will shed tears for, but big institutional investors like Fidelity own significant stakes in Tesla, and they're managing 401ks for regular people.
I don't think too many investors who invested in telecom companies during the tech bubble took comfort in the fact that at least society was left with a lot of fiber and infrastructure.
What would Tesla even leave behind anyway? The only thing I can think of is the battery factory which hopefully would be able to produce batteries for other manufacturers. But even that is not clear to me since China is pouring billions into doing that as well (and they're going to have a lower cost of capital compared to some private entity without state backing).
Your description of their assets is also off. Customer deposits have NO net effect on their balance sheet/equity value. They very clearly have a liability of $686 million to cancel out the cash received.
Tesla's cash flow from investment was -$1.21B last quarter alone. I can scarcely think of a startup that consumed cash at this rate. That's an annualized rate of -$4.84B. Not even the pets.com or Webvans of the world ever reached this level of "cash burn." Cash flow from operations were -$300.56M last quarter, and losses were $671.16M. Annualized, this puts them at around -$1.2B and -$2.68B per year respectively.
If this is due to excess headcount from unreleased products, I say that's crazy and they should stop attempting those unreleased products.
I'm not going to necessarily make the argument that Tesla's share price is rational, but I do think this spending is good for shareholders. The balance sheet equity is a pittance compared to market cap. People are betting on large future profits. And there is just no way the level of production they are currently at could earn enough to justify the price. They have to grow. To grow they have to invest. It's just the nature of the business they are in. I think being in tech gives people the idea that you can create enormous value without capital risk, but that just isn't reality in most of the physical world. I think they are at least being responsible about it. They went out and established there was substantial interest for the 3 prior to undertaking all of this - something Ford didn't do for the Edsel, which in terms of financial sins would be on par with this failing.
To get back to the initial point here, I do think the amount of debt they are using might be a bit on the high side if you consider their current and not future revenue, but the capital markets have shown a huge willingness to stomach secondary offerings of the stock, so it seems like they can and probably will remedy that.
It's pretty obvious that current losses like these could easily overcome a decade-plus of future profits. Their debt is already rated a junk bond, so they aren't going to get any good deals on future debt. At some point, you would think, surely rationality will set in. I mean, Tesla is not the only EV manufacture in the world. Wouldn't it make more sense to invest in another car company that is also making EVs, and have finances that look much more appealing? Why would anyone subsidize a company just to produce a product that others can easily replicate? At some point, this has to stop.
Because you, and I think a lot of people, think Tesla is a car company. It's not; Tesla is becoming a battery company and a charging station company. That will make them as big as gas companies, because everyone will be needing both batteries and electricity, even if they need to offload their car business. Tesla will be far bigger than just cars for decades to come, and I think that's where a large part of shareholder trust is coming from.
I mean how many other EV charging networks are active?
But they can't. A car manufacturer generally has to renew its models every ~10 years with an overall mid-life. Tesla would be profitable if it had a net cashflow including these renewals. I'm not sure it's the case right now because it's difficult to differentiate between capex like building new assembly lines or R&D on core technologies and cost purely associated with the new models.
I know a lot of people who reserved their model-3 paying the deposit. Pretty much they all know that their deliveries are going to be delayed but still put up the deposit. They just don't want to cancel their reservation and lose their spot as long as they get their car.
I think once Tesla's battery problems are resolved and start delivering the model-3s, they should see the cash flowing.
Tesla is spending a lot. More than they earn. Whatever back-of-the-envelope profitability model you attribute to their car making operation to differentiate marginal-operational from capital-investment costs, it does not add up to anything like enough to cover all costs. They cannot cover costs from free cash (as you say) which means they need capital coming in (as you say), debt and equity.
But, this doesn't mean they are selling elonmagic. No one would expect a car company to bootstrap, grow from cash flow. The place they expect to be is cash-hungry. This is what accountants are for, figuring out if a company is headed towards profitability when free cash flow is not an indicator.
The whole idea is that Tesla will be gradually capitalized to the point where it is like GM or Toyota.
Where elonmagic does come in is the same place startup-magic always comes in. It's novel in the auto industry. But, it's bread and butter on crunchbase (or here).
Does this company have the potential to create a large, high margin business. The accountant will have a harder time telling you this, and so will annual report readers. It's like answering the question Will Facebook manage to build an advertising business like Goog's? The answer turned out to be yes, so FB is worth a lot of money. Valuation of FB at IPO time was essentially the aggregate investor's answer to that question at that time.
Elonmagigic plays a big role in that 2nd part, unavoidably. This seems reasonable and to me.
Accounts are accounts. Sometimes the story is simple, and accoutns tell a simple story. Sometimes the real story is there, but takes context, digging and smart accountants to tell properly. Some important parts of the story are not in the accounts, like the fact the Tesla can apparently produce a faster supercar than anyone at 1/4 of the cost.
Their operating loss over the same period is $570M. As I also said, most of what they're spending is capital expenditure, amounting to about $3B.
I.e. the basic story here is simple: they're borrowing a bunch of money to build new factories, which is exactly what you would expect a new car company to do.
If they did, they would have tapped the markets too.
However I don't know what covenants are in those loan documents, and its possible that given the delays tesla could trip a covenant and get in trouble with lenders. Though I'm sure Elon has worked his magic on them as well
Hard to say if they're doing fine at this point, as the model 3 doesn't really show up in the financials yet. The real concern is that model 3 production capacity increases without sufficiently decreasing production efficiency. So revenue goes up but COGS skyrockets, and the business is structurally not profitable on even a gross profit basis. This would lead to huge financing needs, and also probably a drop in the stock price (though the stock price seems immune to dropping). This could lead to company failure and is not a theoretical risk
Lenders usually don't exercise their covenants willy-nilly because doing so is a good way to end up with less money than you started with.
Most covenants are written broadly, in a way to let lenders recapture some of their principal in the event the corporation is indeed on the way to bankruptcy.
Specific example: company is floundering, throwing their remaining cash into a losing business. Lenders might prefer to trigger covenants, take them to bankruptcy, and liquidate and receive 60 cents on the dollar, rather than wait and receive less later on.
But if the lenders think the business is doing fine and they will eventually get repaid, the covenants are more of a negotiating position rather than a real threat.
Of course all this changes if the debt changes hands and, say, a hostile entity gets a controlling share -- but that's what finance departments are supposed to look out for.
I don't know teslas model 3 unit production costs, but if you look at cost curves for other car companies as they scale up manufacturing, and take into account all the fixed costs and manual processes currently used in production of a small number of model 3s, the unit cost is probably massively high. Historically you can reduce those costs by 80%+ as you scale, so it is possible tesla can produce profitably.
On the other hand, tesla set the price for its car before it started making it. So it's entirely possible that they were underestimating the cost / complexity of the manufacturing process and that they simply can't support their cost base with that price. Again, this is a hypothetical, but real concern
More likely is they get there, but takes longer / more money than expected. And in a competitive world, that can be catastrophic
We don't know which of these hypothetical scenarios will play out, so we must assess the likelihood that each happens and value the company that way. Current valuation suggests probabikty of success is very very high and value of success is very large; id argue that both those numbers should be lower
if things start looking really bad, debtholders and equity holders will start clamoring for a change in strategy to preserve their assets. likely they would push to bring in new management to fix manufacturing issues, push for tesla to sell itself, or push for tesla to divest certain parts of its business, or some combination of the above
given how valuable tesla is, for anyone to want to buy them in whole or in part would require a massive drop in their stock price, so stock investors would probably be wiped out long before any bankruptcy proceedings started
Granted there are some differences, but the strategy is the same.
The moment companies like Uber and Tesla start making money, we need the visionaries to come in and start producing ever better products and services for ever collapsing prices.
Amazon had a lot lower losses.
Most people are tuned to think in terms of linear growth.
Additional paid-in capital (https://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii...) went from $3.4B to $7.8B in 2016 to $9.0B as of 9/30. Issuance of stock provided $1.9B in 2016 and $0.5B so far this year (https://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii...).
What happens when the currently-expected market correction hits and Tesla has a harder time going to the capital markets for money?
(minor negative: $1000 of the money paid for each model 3 sold already is in their bank account)
I don't think this is really written for folks who are bullish on Tesla, anyway. It's written for critics, and for folks like myself who might describe themselves as "fascinated skeptics."
Cash flow is up half a billion because they just issued 1.8 billion in junk bonds (which are already trading in minus territory btw). Meanwhile operating cash flows are increasingly negative to the tune of hundreds of millions per quarter.
Sure, they're fine if they continue to raise billions. But they're nowhere near profitable, and they're also going to continue to lose billions. What's going to happen if they receive a credit downgrade or institutional investors decide to stop playing along?
The NUMMI factory is worth little. Automakers are unlikely to want to repurchase a CA factory due to all the regulations they would have to deal with.
What solar tech? Solar City was an installation company, which Tesla bailed out and has been winding down. The solar freaking roof thing doesn't even exist yet--Tesla's reveal was a bunch of fake solar shingles.
People will very generously give Tesla all kinds of benefit of the doubt, but these people might soon realize they don't know what they're talking about.