Comment by superbrama | Hacker News Reader

Comment by superbrama | Hacker News Reader

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How does world peace/deterrence rely solely on the obviously aging USA triad?

What info do you have on adversarial capabilities beyond speculation and belief about their recent military expenditures?

Do you believe that the USA hasn’t considered your scenario already and put plans into place? Do you believe civilians would know the full extent of our nuclear capabilities?

Why do you believe China and Russia are possibly planning to disarm USA’s triad, and why do you believe they’d have the intelligence to do so? Something about leaks, the nsa, whistleblowers.. is there a connection here? Just speculating based on your notion that USA may be getting ganged up on by China and Russia.

Frankly your line of thought is valuable and worth exploring, and I’d like to see what info can be put on the table to explore your ideas further.

1. The US told its allies that it would handle MAD. The US system relies primarily on aging land-based ICBMs. None of the US' trusted allies have significant nuclear forces of their own.

2. The US has every reason to publicize and brag about nuclear capabilities. The entire point of nuclear deterrence is to make your enemy aware of how dangerous an attack would be. The US has done a ton of press on our nuclear programs. There are probably some contingency plans to arm airplanes with gravity bombs but probably nothing effective.

The US recently tested a Minuteman III by shipping a random missile across the country and reassembling it for launch.

Why did it have to be disassembled, shipped, and then launched? Why couldn't someone tell a random silo to remove its warhead and launch? Why can't they show how accurately it hit its target? It's supposed to be 100% reliable, what's the risk?

3. Putin and Xi Jinping have a lot of incentive personally, even if their countries take millions in casualties.

There's an opportunity gap right now while the US works on its next-generation military systems that will make attacks on the US impossible and preemptive attacks by the US possible.

4. The Chinese and Russian militaries are at incredibly high levels of readiness. Large-scale drills and snap drills can get everything in place without leaking any plan whatsoever. The only two people that have to know the plan are Putin and Xi Jinping themselves.

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