>There are many, many households in the SFBA with incomes in the 200-300k range. Buying a 600-900k house on that just isn't that hard
Thanks for sending me on an interesting stats search. Looks 19% of Bay Area households do indeed have household income over $200k [0]. However, this is not typical of tech salaries (and two-earner tech couples are certainly not 20% of the Bay Area population, given the gender ratios).
Glassdoor has the median software engineer at $129k, or $150k with 15+ years experience [1]. I'll go with the whole population. With a $100k down payment, 1.18% property tax rate (San Francisco), and no other debts, Trulia says that that median software engineer can afford a $720k house [2]. Per ADP, with a maxed 401k (as everyone should have), this person takes home about $6000/mo [3].
If we actually look at some inventory in this price range [4], we're talking housing expenses right around $4000/mo, or 2/3rds of take-home pay.
Assume we're targeting a 6-month emergency fund (as everyone should, if not more) and a 20% down payment. You'll need $145,000 for the down payment + $24,000 to be able to service the mortgage in case of unemployment. So, how fast can you save an after-tax $169,000?
Personally, in a good year I can save about $2000/mo in addition to the 401k. So we're talking about 7 ideal years after establishing an emergency fund (0.5-2 years after college, no moves, no significant copays, no rent increases above salary increases). In order to commit 2/3rds of your take-home to housing, for a starter condo or faraway house in a mediocre school district, as a ~32 year old).
What happens to Bay Area house prices in 7 years? Over the last 30 years, somewhere between 50% and 100% appreciation, depending on your choice of interval [5]. How fast can the median engineer save $338k?
>Too much eating out, not enough packing lunch.
Let me check YNAB for the last year... yep, it would take 26 years for the last 12 months of my (admittedly pretty lavish) entertainment spending to fund today's down payment. 75 years for the dining out portion. Also, what the hell kind of tech job doesn't provide lunch? Try again.
[0] https://censusreporter.org/profiles/31000US41860-san-francis...
[1] https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/san-francisco-software-en...
[2] https://www.trulia.com/house-affordability-calculator/
[4] https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/451-Kansas-St-94107/...
[5] https://www.paragon-re.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-...