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Comment by jstanley | Hacker News Reader

The way a post-scarcity society could come to exist is if we stop doing any activity in the physical world and everything moves online.

We've actually gone quite a long way down that road already. I wouldn't be surprised if in 100 years or so, most physical-world activity has stopped.

Once basic electricity, internet connectivity, food, etc. is provided automatically, and all work and leisure is conducted online, there's no barrier to stop anybody from having as much of any kind of information, software, leisure activity, etc. as they want.

I refer to it as "retreating to the virtual realm". Obviously it's not a popular idea at the moment, but I think it'll just happen gradually like it's done so far. Nobody will be forced into moving out of the physical realm, they'll just find that there's increasingly nothing to do as everything has moved to the virtual realm.

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Although electricity, food, etc. are not provided automatically yet, I don't think that in the developed world they are scarce anymore. People don't chase a promotion, work overhours or buy a lottery ticket in the hope of being able to obtain more food. It might not be a gourmet meal in a Michelin star restaurant, but you surely can buy as much food as you need to never be hungry.

If you want a car, then at least in the Western world, you can buy one. It might not be a Ferrari, but when physical transportation is what you are after, it is definitely affordable.

So why do many people still work so hard? Because they don't just want things that are sufficient, they desire to have luxury goods, food or leisure. And how do you define luxury? It is something better than you have now, or even better, something better than what your neighbours/ friends or colleagues have.

This will not change, no matter how easily food and other basic goods become available. Because it is part of human nature to desire to have status, more than that, this is what is driving evolution for many other animals as well.

So a true post-scarcity will never exist. People will just invent new goods or services to go after in the future when today's iphones and sportscars have become affordable. Not because they need them, but for the simple fact that they are difficult to obtain.

> People don't chase a promotion, work overhours or buy a lottery ticket in the hope of being able to obtain more food.

1/6 of the families in NYC are food-insecure. ( http://www1.nyc.gov/assets/foodpolicy/downloads/pdf/2016-Foo... )

I think you’re confusing your position of privilege for how everyone else lives. That’s a mistake.

> So a true post-scarcity will never exist. People will just invent new goods or services to go after in the future when today's iphones and sportscars have become affordable. Not because they need them, but for the simple fact that they are difficult to obtain.

This assumes material wealth remain a source of status. If all things are easily aquired, then there is no reason to hold people with certain possesion in high regard. Instead knowing social codes and ability might become even more important. Perhaps the exception would be historical artifacts abd handmade things, asuming those could not be perfectly copied...

> So why do many people still work so hard?

Let me make you a question. For how long will you still afford all that stuff if you simply quit working?

This. Especially with western world moving more and more into service-based economy, we're literally beginning to have to pay rent to survive.

That's quite an insight. I've never connected those concepts together before.

There's a staggeringly long list of things that are now post-scarcity because they're digital. Each item used to be a luxury available to few instead of a thing that scales to all.

So here's a new way to ask an old question: What's something that should be post-scarcity, but currently isn't?

Anything that costs $0 to make a copy of, but is sold at premium. Enterprise software like Oracle, etc. Digital Music. Streamed Movies and shows (Netflix).

Also, anything that costs nearly $0 at scale, but is sold at premium. Internet service. Cellular service.

Textbooks? There are many ebooks that are legitimately available for free, but textbooks are typically expensive.

I never thought of moving more to the online world a good thing, but this makes me question that. Let's consider a wealthy art collector. It would seem to be better for the collector to buy digital art, which is electronic and reproducible, than to buy up physical paintings, which means less paintings available for others.

> It would seem to be better for the collector to buy digital art, which is electronic and reproducible, than to buy up physical paintings, which means less paintings available for others.

Except the experience of viewing physical artwork is better than viewing a digital representation, in the same way that physically traveling to another country to experience the culture and atmosphere is better than simply seeing it in the 3D view of Google maps. The map is not the destination, and a PNG of a painting isn't a painting. It's only in science fiction that the physical and virtual worlds are indistinguishable.

Notwithstanding the value that also exists in the rarity of physical artwork itself, and in collecting it because it's not infinitely reproducible.

I would define "post-scarcity" as when you organize your economic system to constrain supply in order to prop up prices.

For instance, the U.S. burns 30% of its corn crop to produce ethanol, which would never happen in a market system, but it happens because of a government mandate.

That's my hope. Maybe the period where humans had an impact on the planet will be short lived and they will disappear again. When I look at my 50 year old body and its slow decline I wouldn't mind getting rid of it and live virtually.

People also like to get married, have families, socialize, play sports, go to nice restaurants, attend shows, etc.

Your vision also assumes every human wants to, or can, be a knowledge worker. A lot of people can only function as manual laborers.

Those things are true now, but I don't think it'll take too many generations for what I described to be considered totally normal.

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