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Comment by bsaunder | Hacker News Reader

What signs do you think you will see?

I think we are hitting a new reality where people are having a hard time adding value. Over time, I think computers and robots will be able to automate and out perform most human tasks.

Much effort is put on retraining people for new jobs. The problem is that there will come a point where no human will beat the automated systems and no amount of training will fix that. On the top end of the scale, we have brilliant people that are forced to accept low wage research jobs or jobs that have nothing to do with their specialty.

Have you seen the diapers.com automated warehouse video? How long do you think it will take before every non-unionized retail chain has automated the restocking of their stores. How many net jobs do you think that will create?

I'm not saying the "Singularity" is approaching. But I do wonder what the signs would be and if these are some of them.

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Useful automation is going to lead to more wealth, which mean more free time for other stuff.

However, there come a point that automation approach the point where further investment will yield diminishing marginal returns. People are going to automate so much.

Just because you have a machine that produces 1,000,000 cokes in an hour doesn't mean you're going to make more money. What you will end up is a machine that actually cost a lot to maintain, and produce lot of cokes that will be thrown away due to the bottleneck in other parts of the production chain.

Useful automation is going to lead to more wealth, which mean more free time for other stuff.

Sure, I think this exactly describes our current situation. Ironically, that "more wealth" is very disproportionately distributed between the owner of the automation mechanism and the workers that have been automated away. Similarly the notion of "more free time" is equally disproportionate.

One better go get another job, one can sit back and enjoy life.

Only if you care about relative wealth. Do you really care if somebody got awarded a billion bucks while you get awarded a 100,000 dollars equivalent in lifestyle quality increase?

It is a misconception to think that you can just sit back and enjoy life. There is competition from other businessmen after all. They will automates, and continue to drive down cost. One of the reason why some people can do these kinds of thing you talked about is because inefficient markets exists and people are too lazy to challenge the guy. That's not always a problem if it is not too hard for an entrepreneur to recognize and move in.

However, the cost of maintaining a given lifestyle should goes down, as long as people don't keep increasing their consumption expenditure.

Why invest in automation in a first world country when you can easily ship that kind of work to a low wage country? (I'm not saying this is a bad things to do - it's just a fact of commercial life).

Automated systems put your production closer to your customers, decreasing shipping/transportation costs and making product localization or fast responses to changing tastes/fashions possible. Depending on where suppliers are located, automated systems might speed up any turn-around times in some production pipelines. Automated systems can run 24/7. Automated systems can be a cost-effective way of keeping critical parts of the pipeline in your control or at least in a jurisdiction where you have some confidence in the rule of law. CapEx can be depreciated and qualify for other favorable tax treatment.

Right now the balance may tip towards outsourcing to a low-wage country, but there is no reason to believe that any of the factors that contribute to this will remain constant.

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