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Comment by athenot | Hacker News Reader

China just wants peace in the area. It's not at all in their interest to see a conflict right next door to them.

At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.

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Not just a war, a massive humanitarian crisis. If the NK government were to disappear how many needy people would flood over their border and cause massive resource issues?

It’s a weird situation where basically everyone hates NK (I imagine China would be more happy if that was just more of their normal territory) but everyone is terrified of what happens when the NK State dissolves.

SK wants to reunite but that would have to be done slowly to avoid the same issues China is afraid of (ignoring any ‘diehards’ causing terrorism or just unrest).

'humanitarian crisis' - isn't NK already the very example of 'humanitarian crisis'? just that NK gov. is good at 'containing' its people & let then starve...

It's currently a humanitarian crisis that China don't have to (and to a large extent can't) deal with.

Right. It’s a disaster but it’s contained. As soon as the government can’t enforce it’s borders (there are some leaks now but it’s not open) then it’s going to become a huge issue in China and SK and anywhere else people can get to.

Of course China and SK could arm up at the borders and start shooting people but... that’s not really an improvement is it.

Conflict in North Korea would lead to a humanitarian crisis for China and South Korea to deal with. I dont think either would want to deal with that

They want peace, but they also don't want a US military base on their borders. They're clearly trying to balance the two.

> At the same time, I think it's not far-fetched that China would flex its muscle against the US if we escalate this conflict.

I don't think so. I think they would actually just let NK be nuked and maybe try to capture it afterwards.

The Pyongyang wind rose indicates that a lot of the fallout will be carried N, NW, and W -- i.e. to the Chinese territory. I doubt they would welcome nuking so close to their borders.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?FMM=1&FYY=2...

This leaves aside the question of how real these sanctions are, and how much China will keep helping NK behind the scenes.

That's something I hadn't considered, but it strikes me as the most reasonable approach, and (I might be entirely off on this one!) one befitting a culture that really understands the concept of honor/'saving face'.

Expect the nukes to fall when the north wind doth blow

To carry the fallout onto South Korea, and the US militry stationed there? Brilliant!

I will report this back to the Dear Leader, he will find your plan very interesting!

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