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Comment by germinalphrase | Hacker News Reader

Probably reliant on a fundamentally new platform(?). If we do end up with a rich AR world (a la Rainbows End), perhaps it will simply be an instant purchase based on lived context (e.g. Run out of something? Instant order. See something you like? Instant order.)

That said, seems surprising that Amazon would miss that boat.

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I think you're right that Amazon won't miss this boat (but someone might be able to do it better than them). Amazon are already looking at printing instant-order dash buttons directly on products.

I think the things that could threaten amazon's core business one day are:

3D printing. Whether the designs are free or paid for, its not a given that you'll buy the designs through Amazon. You might get the filament through them, but that's a fraction of the value they currently capture.

Sharing, rental and communal ownership. Many of the things I buy from Amazon are never used full time. Whether at a local or national scale the norm could shift to communal resources rather than private ownership. Particularly as city apartments get smaller and have less storage.

Direct ordering from China or other producers. Amazon have already lost this to alibaba. If we started ordering more everyday things direct, this could hit Amazon.

Full AI Ascension. If we completely leave corporeal existence behind, it would put a dent in Amazon's business. Although, on second thoughts, we'd probably be running on AWS...

There are more mundane ends to Amazon possible.

1. If shareholders turn on the company for some reason, it could cause a chain reaction as the margins are so thin and operations costs growing.

Normal tech companies are more insulated from these kinds of problems as they don't require physical assets like traditional companies and take extremely healthy margins.

Amazon is balanced on a knife's edge, financially.

2. Actions by the US government could also be a threat worth considering as Amazon is a monopoly now. It currently is thought to not hurt the consumer. At the same time, the value in Amazon is the thought that they could 'turn on the profit faucet anytime' but when that happens, they'll almost certainly not be good for the consumer.

3. Jeff Bezos is also a single point of failure. He's amazing but probably still mortal. Amazon might not weather his absence well.

This is a good list. But I'm wondering what makes you think Amazon has lost direct ordering from China to Alibaba? Amazon makes this process pretty smooth, where a Chinese vendor can directly compete alongside other marketplace sellers. For Alibaba, on the other hand, you're going to a special site based on the expectation of getting cheap stuff from China.

This means that at least for me, most of my direct-from-China purchases have been from Amazon. Though I'm also often happy to pay a little extra for FBA, which also seems like a great way to maximize value for both consumers and Chinese manufs.

It is so much cheaper to ship an item from China then from within the United States. Shipping is subsidized in China and then the US Post Office will take the item and deliver it the rest of the way for free. If I can wait 4 weeks for an item I try and buy direct from China.

I would add:

airbnb like model for warehousing/fullfilment, for capital efficiency and closeness to customers.

In Europe: China's railway project.

Control of self-driving vehicles by Google for a few years , and insistence they'd be used to build a competitive network against Amazon.

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