The problem with step 1 is that I was going to leave at the end of the year to go write a book. Maybe I could just say that? I just feel like it's going to look like I am quitting because this project sucks... er... because IS why I am quitting.
Sounds like you answered your own question.
Would you really WANT a reference from these people?
I'm guessing no -- they're legally bound to confirm that you worked there, but your references should be people that you've worked with, trust, and respect. I NEVER list managers that have clusterfucked projects as references, I always choose people who've worked with me and that I respected technically as well as personally. (Some of whom WERE managers, but that's exceedingly rare.)
Why not pull your timeline forward and use the book as the excuse?
Regardless of the reason you end up using, I'm in favor of doing whatever it takes to leave on a good note. Think long term. Always.