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Comment by luxpir | Hacker News Reader

Take note, high-risk investors: now is a good time to buy.

I remember the last time something China related happened in 2013 or something. I forgot the exact news but it sent BTC tumbling back to $200-300 in next couple of years before it came back up. If you believe in China's influence that much, then better wait it out. There should be much better price to be had.

> I remember the last time something China related happened in 2013 or something.

Are you conveniently forgetting the first few weeks of this year? They changed their policies towards cryptocurrencies in a way that wasn't quite clear (rumors were that "China is banning cryptocurrencies!" and "Chinese exchanges are closing!"). The reality of the regulatory change was tiny in comparison to the rumors, and many people profited from the short term rumor noise.

Yes, this is becoming a textbook example of the situation where the old investment adage applies:

"Don't try to catch a falling knife..."

There are other Chinese exchanges. If they announce something similar, Bitcoin will drop even further.

And it is pretty likely they do so. In my opinion China is issuing their own e-currency pretty soon, so they don't really want any competitors. We are living in very interesting times.

Why would China need an e-currency? If you're in China you can already buy things online using the good-old yuan. What value would another currency add?

Completely control on the people spending it. Government will be able to put taxes on the people and no one will be able to hide their earnings. Also I suppose it would be much cheaper than circulating paper money.

That would make things very interesting.

I got some ETH at $230-$240 range but it would not surprise me if we see a $170-$180 range (next resistance level) the next hours.

Resistance level? It's 2017 and you still believe technical analysis BS?

Humour me here: Wouldn't technical analysis be a good way to analyze something like ETH or BTC?

A normal stock has the underlying company, earnings, performance, forecasts, etc. to sort through and figure out where it is headed, but ETH and BTC have no such thing. So what better way to analyze than TA?

Except weather has an element of predictability, at least over the short range, the realm of finance is highly unpredictable even in the short term. Who foresaw this crash?

I sold all my ETH at 297 right after it was starting (I make sure to check the markets before I sleep because China is often more market moving than the US/EU). I've been worried about the truth of the recent statements made in China about closures. This is obviously totally anecdotal and I made a really, really lucky call. Can't say I thought it would continue to go down this heavily. I consider any money I've put in these markets mostly play money anyways.

probably the PBOC, who will use it to 'buy the dip'

Resistance levels do exist in reality, but things don't bounce off whole numbers because "magic". They bounce becomes humans are human and place their bids and offers at those whole numbers. That being said, I'd be looking at those bids and offers, not the chart.

These technical analysis features can become 'self fulfilling prophecies', if a significant number of market participants believe in them (meaning it's a psychological effect). Other than that TA seems to be mostly BS.

https://prnt.sc/gl3wa4 Resistance levels cannot predict price movements - they can just help you when you set some Limit Orders in an exchange, worked for me several times.

EDIT: The pair in the image is ETH/EUR

Not 100% and surely I don't believe I can predict price movements with TA. But resistance levels can help a bit. Don't forget that cryptocurrency markets are yet immature and self-fulfilling prophecies is something de facto in them

what is a better way to decide on buy/sell signals for cryptos in your opinion? Genuinely curious.

1. Buy coins.

2. Shut the fuck up about "signals" and "trading"

3. Build cool apps around the crypto ecosystem

4. See more and more people using cryptocurrencies

5. profit

What kind of apps can be built in the crypto ecosystem?

All kind of apps that can be built utilizing the power of fiat currency. Example 1: I can build a blog and start accepting donations in cryptocurrencies - same goes for online games etc.

Example 2: I can utilize the blockchain to proof authenticity of a document, image, sound, will, legal document etc.

Example 3: Filecoin, Siacoin, Storj - P2P file hosting

Example 4: Aragon - Decentralized trust-less companies - Test their alpha version - it seems the solution on the governance of open source apps

Example 5: Decentralized exchanges - check etherdelta.

The above are just really basic examples - we are still in a really premature phase. The whole point of cryptocurrencies is that I can trust and exchange labor, money or whatever with anyone worldwide without me even knowing them.

The worldwide economic crashes were the result of people trusting 3rd parties such as banks, investment firms etc. This problem can be solved.

I think it will be big for virtual gaming assets: https://spellsofgenesis.com/ and https://www.ageofrust.games/

"21" has a framework to assist it and a handful of developers have already built apps:

https://21.co/mkt/

The illegal kinds that have high demand, like darknet markets.

If you're willing to gamble, buy and keep buying, and hope it doesn't crash. If you're not willing to gamble, go by an index fund instead.

Anyone who thinks they can figure out buy/sell signals for cryptos right now is a lunatic.

By figuring out how to manipulate the market or by deanonymizing the accounts of influencers (e.g., Chinese regulator or proxy) and following their trades. But that's a lot of work and may prove impossible.

Even better, use the dollar cost average approach to buy and don't sell unless you are using it as a currency. The world needs a digital currency now but the volatility is preventing that from happening.

Buy when everyone is selling like a maniac and cross your fingers. You should not invest what you cannot afford to lose. High risk - high gain...

There is definitely levels, but not for something where there is not even a range of concensus value.

define TA...Yes fibonacci spaghetti spirals are the financial equivalent of astrology, but the academic evidence supporting the performance of momentum strategies is well established.

Same here. I'm trying to figure out how to short ETH. Unfortunately, I'm a noob and don't know my way around.

You can short on Kraken. Fair warning: Kraken is absolutely not suitable for time sensitive trading. Their back end cannot handle low volume days, let alone high volume days. You can expect to enter the same order 5-10 times before it goes through without unspecified failures, and this is challenging because it may not accurately report whether an order succeeded at the API level, or was actually filled. But if your strategy can tolerate some uncertainly in when you'll be able to make an order, I guess it's ok.

You can short ETH on some trading websites such us eToro or Plus500 which in my opinion are not really great. A really high risk move would be to register on 1broker which is a CDF broker where deposits are done in BTC. There you can short BTC if you like. I would surely not leave any amount in that broker for a long time

Another way of shorting is to get an ETH loan from someone, covert it to $ and then wait for ETH to fall. When it does you can buy more ETH, pay back the loan and keep the profit.

If you use coinbase then you should try to login to GDAX with same credentials. It just works and the fees are like 0.25% per trade.

P.S.: GDAX is owned by Coinbase

I logged into GDAX, but it requires a webcam to complete the setup. Something that I don't have at the moment.

I blocked the webcam, then tried again and it gave me the option to upload photos of my ID instead. Not sure why that wasn't an option in the first place like it is on coinbase.

Even better, if you're the maker on a limit trade on GDAX, there's no fee.

Bitfinex is probably your best bet.

I'm using coinbase atm that doesn't short. Also has very high fees.

EDIT: bitfinex doesn't work on the machine I'm using. Guess shorting will have to wait for later.

When others' are scared be greedy. When other's are greedy be scared.

Don't try to catch a falling knife.

Its really hard to call a bottom. Even if you think the security will recovery, buying in at $2000 is cheaper than buying in at $3000.

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