In January 1992[1], long after the Cuba Crisis, Robert S. McNamara attended a meeting with Castro. He asked Castro: 1) Did you know the warheads were there? 2) Would you have recommended to Chruschtschow to use the in the face of an US American attack? 3) If he had used them, what would have happened to Cuba?

His response: 1) I knew they were there. 2) I would not have recommended to Cruschtschow, I did recommend to use them. 3) What would have happened to Cuba? We would have been totally destroyed!

I think this story should be kept in mind when trying to predict behavior, esp. when the stakes are this high.

[1] Retold by Robert S. McNamara in "The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara": http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0317910/