In the case of normalising a non-Turing-complete language, we (a) don't need any heuristics, beta-reduction is a complete and correct strategy and (b) things like the size of a function are useless at telling us whether we've reached a normal form. In fact, I would imagine that normal forms of real Dhall programs are generally much bigger than the programs themselves, since one of the main reasons to use a language like Dhall is to reduce repetition. Also, your heuristic is heavily dependent on the evaluation order: if we have a program like this:
(\x -> (\y -> x)) small-thing (duplicate 1000000 big-thing)
Then an evaluation strategy like call-by-name will never look at big-thing, since it evaluates the functions first and they discard it: (\x -> (\y -> x)) small-thing (duplicate 1000000 big-thing)
(\y -> small-thing) (duplicate 1000000 big-thing)
small-thing
small-value
On the other hand, an evaluation strategy like call-by-value will evaluate big-thing, resulting in some arbitrarily large value (which may cause your heuristic to halt); then it will create 1000000 duplicates of that value (again, causing a size-based heuristic to halt); then finally it will evaluate the functions and discard the big, duplicate expression: (\x -> (\y -> x)) small-thing (duplicate 1000000 big-thing)
(\x -> (\y -> x)) small-value (duplicate 1000000 big-thing)
(\x -> (\y -> x)) small-value (duplicate 1000000 big-value)
(\x -> (\y -> x)) small-value [big-value, big-value, ...]
(\y -> small-value) [big-value, big-value, ...]
small-valueBut practical programming is about writing programs that we actually want to run. The distinction between "takes far too long" and "hangs forever" is unimportant because real-world tasks have at least an informal deadline: how long the user is willing to wait. And most performance testing is done by actually running programs, not via static analysis alone, because we want to know how fast the code is on real-world hardware.
This particular language is something you'd use to generate large, repetitive configurations. It makes sense for that use case that you'd want to make sure all macros can be expanded. But you don't have to prove this statically, because you can actually run the program and look at what it generates. Doing config file generation using a Turing-complete language would also work fine; if you accidentally create an infinite loop (or just very slow code), you can hit control-C and fix the bug.