Comment by rebootthesystem | Hacker News Reader

Comment by rebootthesystem | Hacker News Reader

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rebootthesystem

Thanks for your insight on this. Yes, I understand there are a lot of risks in 3D printing and lots of people chasing after unicorns. Yet, within certain constraints the technology is very useful. I'd say this might be particularly true of metal 3D printing, where companies like SpaceX are manufacturing complex parts that can't be made in any other way.

I have a feeling that, at scale, 3D printing will become just like CNC machining. Anyone can buy a cheap CNC machine on eBay, yet, from that to using them for non-trivial manufacturing and prototyping work it is a whole other matter.

Today you can buy 3D printers for as little as $100. I bet most of those sit around collecting dust after someone printed a rook, Darth Vader's head, the Eiffel Tower and a few models they downloaded here and there. In other words, they end-up exactly where drones do after the initial love affair.

It should come as no surprise that the majority of actual consistent usage is in professional and manufacturing applications. Be it research in prosthetic limbs, prototyping or limited run specialized parts.

I believe these sectors will continue to grow and require constant improvements in technology. My guess is this is where opportunities lie, not with the now very tired idea of kids making their own toys at home you see in nearly every single Kickstarter campaign.

Within this century, an average middle-class person may be able to afford a machine that could print things at home that they would want to wear or use. Today that person could make a crappy shoe in low-cost FDM machine and put shoelaces in it, but a pair of uncomfortable sandals is not the same as a nice pair of running shoes. To print consumer goods like that, you would need not only the automation and technology that could fit in a small spot in the home, but you would need raw materials that the machine could use, and probably there would need to be advances in chemistry, etc. Baking is different, though. Affordable 3D printing in a home kitchen should be much sooner, as that tech is already here.

So, if the immediate future is not having printers in the home to make any product, where would those be?

UPS moved boldly recently and got into 3D printing: https://www.theupsstore.com/print/3d-printing

I like what they are trying to do, but it doesn't work like that. The typical customer doesn't have the experience or resources available to design a part to be printed correctly, and then after that for the part to be finished as it should be to meet the specifications they've defined.

The immediate future is really all about the manufacturing companies that know 3D/additive and have the money and experience to blend those technologies with other manufacturing technologies in different niches. One company won't be able to produce cakes, shoes, and rocket parts anytime soon. But one company could produce satellite parts along with the parts for the printers and other factory equipment to make the cakes and shoes; another might just print the cake, another might print the shoe, but not all the parts of the shoe. That all happens today. Later, maybe a manufacturing company could print a whole satellite, a whole shoe, and print a cake and ship it without any human intervention.

A number of years ago I read a very interesting book titled "Great Mambo Chicken and the Transhuman Condition". Despite the title this is a forward looking book exploring ideas surrounding applications of nanotechnology. The author talks about refrigerators that can print perfectly marbleized artificial beef and, at the other extreme, downloading your brain into a robot for telepresence and space travel.

3D printing, taken to the extreme of piling molecules on top of each other, could fundamentally change the way we make things.

In today's reality I am looking for opportunities to push the envelope. This could mean everything and anything from better hardware to better services. A few interesting ideas have come forward. Trying to filter through them now.

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