One thing to take away from this is that RansomPKP is not so much an argument you can use when deciding whether you should deploy HPKP for a particular site, but rather something that's relevant for deciding whether browsers should continue to support HPKP in its current form at all. I could see how a couple of large RansomPKP cases could very well cause a change on that front.
Like you said, RansomPKP is more impactful to the ecosystem-wide decision of whether HPKP should exist than to whether an individual should use it (given the precondition that it exists). That said, malicious pinning was explicitly discussed and noted as a concern during the standardization process, so RansomPKP doesn't add much to that ecosystem-wide decision; it's just a fun application of HPKP Suicide that takes the core malicious pinning idea to a logical conclusion, and isn't even necessarily the worst way to abuse a compromised web server. There are also much more positive applications of HPKP Suicide, e.g. my startup Cyph's in-browser code signing layer.
Anyway, I wouldn't use any of this to argue against the very existence of HPKP, but I agree with Scott removing it from a tool that at least partially targets non-experts.
Huh? How? If the header changes, don't browsers automatically update their pins next time the user visits that page?
> [...]and cause alarm bells to be set off early
I don't get this either. If an attacker enabling HPKP wouldn't set off any alarm bells, why would changing an existing HPKP header do that?
As far as early alarm bells, sorry, that was a bit vague. I was referring to not just ambiguous warning signs that would be caught by careful monitoring, but the inevitable stream of reports from end users about the big scary TLS pinning error screen in the browser, should the attacker decide to immediately push out the malicious keys/headers without waiting out the old ones' expiry.