And, frankly, my measly 200GB isn't much data. A 2TB HDD costs under $100 and could cost $500/mo to back up with tarsnap. It would still have been $5/mo with CrashPlan.
I get that Colin is basically just charging the S3 costs plus a small margin, but the reality is that S3 is far too expensive to be used to store low-value consumer data.
The majority of my most important backup data is my photos. I don't see how tarsnap could duplicate (or even further compress) that.
I have approx 2.5tb on CrashPlan, so that gives me an upper bound of $625 per month. Maybe it might be 50% lower when deduped, maybe more, maybe less. Who knows. Not really a pricing model I can make a decision on.
Tarsnap looks great for certain use cases. But it doesn't really make sense for home users with a large amount of data.
Using the --dry-run flag.