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Comment by phaed | Hacker News Reader

People look at price history of Bitcoin, see the hockey stick, and immediately call bubble. http://imgur.com/a/ifk2b

What they fail to realize is that these linear charts plot a $5 change the same distance when Bitcoin is $10 as when Bitcoin is $4000. Yet for Bitcoin to go up to $15 when it was $10 it had to increase in market cap by 50%. For bitcoin to go up from $4000 to $4005 it doesn't need jack squat, it's a rounding error.

A better view of Bitcoin's price is in log scale. Here you can see that the growth is steady: http://i.imgur.com/R9yQ8Dk.png

There is nothing special happening now, as there was nothing special when it went from $5->$10, $50->$100, $100->$200, $500->$1000, $1000->$2000. People just want them, and they are a finite resource.

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> There is nothing special happening now, as there was nothing special when it went from $5->$10, $50->$100, $100->$200, $500->$1000, $1000->$2000. People just want them, and they are a finite resource.

Realistically, Bitcoin is less than 10 years old and bubbles have lasted 10+ years before.

The real estate bubble, for instance, started around 1997 and didn't really complete its popping until 2012. That was 15 years and 10 of which people were 100% oblivious to it.

I'm not saying its nesc. the case in this instance but your "evidence" is no different than what people tried to argue to justify housing prices and such in the past.

Even with your log graph, there is a substantial disconnect from the trend line you drew vs. prices.

I don't see how you can compare Bitcoin to the housing market. The fundamentals are completely different.

If you refuse to admit history exists and bubbles have lasted longer than Bitcoin had existed, please stop talking.

The relevance is the duration, not the store of value in question.

https://www.thebalance.com/gold-the-ultimate-bubble-has-burs...

There is another one that co-existed with Bitcoin before dropping like a rock.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/176210-the-recurring-gold-b...

There is a guy in 2009 making similar arguments to you.

Please stop misleading people by pretending Bitcoin is somehow different when it has real competitors that have executed on the idea far more competently.

Bitcoin is in a 100 year bubble. Happy? Taking about misleading people, yet here you are trying to convince people it's a bubble. If you're so sure why not short Bitcoin? I dare you.

I believe in Crypto, I believe it has a future and its need in this world. If you don't that's ok, stay in the side lines getting grumpier and grumpier as time passes.

Cryptocurrencies are not mutually exclusive, this is not Highlander, there can be more than one. Look at Ethereum, already at half the market cap of Bitcoin and it hasn't affected Bitcoin's price in the least. What Bitcoin has over the others is wide adoption and mind-share. Smart money will diversify regardless.

I am not grumpy but your talking points are based on an ignorance of history many people share.

I genuinely do not care if I convince you. I just don't want people to buy into people like you like they did with people who promoted the past couple of bubbles as sure things.

I understand you are a true believer and nothing I say will convince you.

As far as shorting Bitcoin? I don't expect it to implode in the next 3-6 months.

If you don't expect something to drop substantially in the next 90 days, shorting is a terrible idea.

I am not sure why I should buy a lottery ticket when I can reliably make substantial returns in other markets.

Bitcoin is ultimately intended to facilitate transactions and other crypto currency does it better.

>If you're so sure why not short Bitcoin? I dare you. >I believe in Crypto, I believe it has a future and its need in this world.

What do you make of people who fall into both categories? I use bitcoin as part of my payment processor in some cases and in that way I recognise its use as store of value (if only transiently). However, I also recognise that there is a market for the token that we call bitcoin, with a wide variety of people willing to buy and sell them in reasonable volume at a (very) dynamic price for my use case.

Why do you seem to propose that bitcoin does not behave as other assets that can be described in the same way?

Actually the log chart shows a substantial dip after every spike.

Well it wouldn't be a spike if there wasn't a dip after it.

You can say pretty much the same thing about any stock.

And what happens after the dips?

So you acknowledge the dips exist?

I'm neither blind or deluded. After catastrophes like the MTGox theft where trust was lost with Bitcoin, and the recent uncertainty with Segwith2x, the market has taken a dive but has always turned around. There are billions of dollars waiting in the side lines for opportunities to buy cheap Bitcoins. Weak hands lose their money to opportune investors when these things happen.

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