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Would you have paid $18K to fly to Japan though? The "cents per mile" is high but it's better to measure your WTP (willingness to pay).

BTW, you can regularly get west coast to Japan in business class for ~$3-4k/pp. ex. https://goo.gl/flights/BDTu. If you wait for deals, there was Vancouver - Japan/Hong Kong/SE Asia for ~$2k in business class for a while. Business class prices have been consistently dropping transatlantic (TATL) and we're seeing that transpacific (TPAC) too, albeit more slowly.

I think what you did was smart, but there's really no way to continue to get that kind of value from your miles. You could get the other Amex cards (~150k MR?), and other Chase cards (~150k UR?), but hard to repeatedly get big bonuses like that :P

Totally agree though that keeping one or both of those cards is great for the right kind of spend. It's just not like a free trip to Europe every quarter like it used to be.

Not sure how much "willingness to pay" makes sense. This is more about taking advantage of money which would otherwise be left on the table. If you aren't going out of your way to spend on cards, and all you need to do is shift spending onto certain cards for certain purchases during the first X months in order to get a nice point bonus, seems like a nice way to get a free vacation.

It isn't accurate to count it as $18k in realized value from cc points if you would have never spent that much on the thing without the points.

The actual realized value is the amount that one would have been willing spend on the thing with their _own_ money, if they didn't have the points.

Yes thats true, I conceded that point in another reply to Sleeep. I did look up tickets just now and they are about $6500/person on ANA. I specifically looked up ANA because I wanted to fly on one of the better airlines. The service I got was absolutely fantastic.

2 business class tickets is definitely not $18k in value. There are regularly sales with various airlines when you can get a business class to Japan for around $2k per ticket. And since availabilities for rewards vary and are sometimes hard to come buy, you cannot compare them to the price of a fully flexible airline ticket.

But that said, you can get good value from using miles.

I know they aren't normally that much, but at the time they were like 8800 per person. I had a specific airline in mind when I flew because I wanted the full experience. ANA currently is like $6500/person for business but I felt it was well worth the cost. I know you can get cheaper tickets.

Out of curiosity, how much do you have to spend to get those bonus miles? Right now Chase Sapphire Reserve will give you 50k miles for $4k in spending within 3 months (in addition to the $450 annual fee).

It just seems like a lot of these credit card based mileage schemes are really limited to people who can naturally spend tens of thousands a year on credit cards and can additionally afford the potentially thousands more in annual fees (if you have multiple cards). For those who aren't in the top 20th percentile of income, or who just prefer a frugal lifestyle, I don't see how its viable.

Or are there tricks to manufacture spending and recoup your costs?

When I signed up to those two cards, it was $3k spend in 3 months for each card. I also signed up at different times. For my Amex platinum I actually put my security deposit on it for 2k and 2k down on a car haha.

You can manufacture spending and spend something like $10,000 a month on gift cards, then turn that back into cash to pay your credit card bill. Not sure how to do it and its also risky. AMEX/Chase have been closing accounts for it and one guy was doing it with Money Orders and the US Postal Service went after him for money laundering.

As for me I have a natural spend of about 5500 a month for all expenses and rent. I paid rent using Plastiq (2.5% fee) for a while and got triple points before Chase cut off the triple points offer on Plastiq's services. They re-categorized it as a business service instead of travel.

It definitely favors higher incomes for sure.

I can put 4-5000 a month on a card and with point bonuses, earn something like 6-8000 points per month. So in 2 years we'll have enough to go on another dream vacation (Probably Japan again cause it was amazing!).

EDIT: You can down grade your card to a no fee card after you've gotten your bonuses. Then later re apply. AMEX has language in their Terms that limits you to 1 bonus per card per lifetime, but recently some of their cards do not have that language. Chase limits you to 5 cards opened in a 24 month period, regardless of the credit card servicer. Citi also has some form of restriction. This all recently started in the last year or 2.

AMEX is calling out downgrading after 12 months as a way to lose your sign up bonus as of a few weeks ago. They are cracking down on people who don't have a serious interest in keeping the card. This is one of the reasons why I said the golden age is well over - https://www.doctorofcredit.com/amex-updates-terms-penalize-g...

When the Chase Sapphire Reserve first arrived, it had a 100k bonus. They've since decreased it to 50k.

Isn't the Amex platinum $550 a year though? Still a good deal, but not entirely free either?

When I got it was $450, they recently raised the prices. Even if you run the calculations, its still worth it.

$550 a year fee

$200 airline credit

$200 Uber credit

$20 Global Entry credit per year (Prorated. Global entry costs $100 per 5 years and AMEX will cover the cost).

Gold status with SPG and Hilton

Lounge access at many airports

Free subscription to GoGo for in flight internet (domestic) And lastly, AMEX Platinum Concierge is still the best service for any card.

5x points on airline purchases.

Chase Sapphire has even better value.

$450 fee

$300 credit per year (When I got this card, I was able to redeem the credit twice due to the timing and how Chase calculates the year.) ALso Chase's credit is far more useful since "travel" is loosely defined for them.

Lounge access

$20 Global Entry Credit per year (used this one for fiance)

Travel insurance

No Foreign Transaction fees

3x points on dining and 3x on travel.

The AMEX redemptions are some of the worst, and they are losing partners. They also didn't auto-reimburse me for the airline credit when I followed all their instructions. They also didn't reimburse me for Uber credit -- apparently it doesn't work when the trips are in other countries (only the US), which is a really lame for a "travel" card.

For ANA its pretty sweet. 85k round trip on business to Asia. But, in general I agree I think they are on the down fall and they need to come up with some new things to remain competitive. The hotel status are the only reason I have them because I have been traveling a lot lately and its worth it. I may end up cancelling it in the future.

You can't call your airlines tickets $18k in value because you wouldn't have spent $18k on two airline tickets. My value is the max I'm willing to pay for a ticket, not the price the airline says the ticket I redeemed for is worth. Bloggers say this too and it's disingenuous. For me those tickets would be $5k because that's the most I'm willing to pay for two tickets to Japan.

It's a pain to figure out the best way to get from point A to point B using points. You have to figure out which points to collect,then you have to collect enough of them, then figure out which time of the year to go where the redemptions you can afford are. Then you have to transfer and book on partner airlines. It certainly isn't straightforward.

Yeah, sure, you can do a big trip with two HUGE sign up bonuses of flexible points very easily. Being able to get one high quality trip isn't the same as being able to get many high quality trips, you aren't going to be able to do that a couple times a year (which is what bloggers make it seem like). Travel bloggers promote churning through cards to keep generating more points. You can't just churn through Platinum and CSR applications over and over again. (Platinum is churable to an extent but that's another topic and AMEX is cracking down on that)

Those two sign up bonuses you got are not common and the CSR one won't come back ever again (Chase is losing money on the CSR, look for a devaluation in the future).

Also your points have to be spread out among 5+ different loyalty programs if you want to continue churning credit cards/points/bonuses.

My redemptions are fine, they fit my needs. I have not redeemed a lot yet. I haven't planned a big trip yet. So far all my redemptions have been for a couple nights at a time. You aren't going to get as much value if you simply fly domestic. Flying to Japan may get you the most value but it's worthless if you don't want to fly to Japan.

Anyways, my point of the GP was:

-TPG and most travel blogs are a business that are making money off you.

-Points aren't as simple as "sign up for credit card, fly to Japan," you have to be flexible and usually to get a good redemption you'll have to transfer and book off peak. Availably is limited.

-To get more than 1-2 trips you're going to have to game the system. Sign up, collect bonuses, close card, repeat. You hit a wall with this after a while.

-Credit card companies are cracking down on gamers.

-Some people are better off getting part time job with how much effort they put into gaming the system.

-The rules are always changing.

I do not believe its disingenuous to say that they are $18k in value. That's how much the tickets cost at the time. Could I afford the tickets if I paid cash? No, but isn't that the whole point of churning?

I looked up the cheapest flights on ANA business class in September 2017 and they look to be around $6500 per person. That is still quite a bit of money saved. I potentially could afford that if I was extra frugal for a few years. It also means you can use the money for other things, which we did in the form hot springs ryokan, more gifts and souvenirs.

Figuring out which points to collect really wasn't that hard, it takes 10 minutes to look up that information. There are plenty of sites that catalog that information like reddit.com/r/awardtravel, www.awardace.com, www.awardhacker.com

Figuring out which time of the year to go may change the amount of points you need, that I agree can be annoying.

I will concede that its not a straight forward process, but its also something you can look up and research in a day.

As for the huge sign up bonuses, yes they probably won't come around again for a long time, but you can still get the amount of points needed pretty quick. Since I booked our trips in 2016 (2017 was the vacation), I have accumulated 50k Amex points and 40k Chase points. Amex has quite a few offers that double, triple, or even 10x the normal amount of points received. I bought a TV from Best Buy and got 3000 points. I signed up for "Pay over time" and got 10,000 points. I had to ship a few packages (ebay stuff) on Fedex and got 10x points for 2k points.

With Chase I put all my grocery/dining/travel expenses on it. I get 3x for that.

At the end of the day, I guess it depends on how much you want out of it. I do not do manufactured spending and buy gift cards, but I do look at deals and offers and try to maximize my point earnings. Whether you believe that's a chore and is worth it or not is up to you.

That's a dumb way to value it.

You can get a $500 hotel on points. You don't say "well, I live for free at home, so technically this night is worth nothing."

Just because you can "buy" something with a different currency that might make more sense, doesn't make it cost less in USD if you were to purchase it outright.

He's talking about willingness to pay (WTP), which is the right way to value travel imo. A biz flight might be $4k, but the economy option might be $800. If I buy economy but would pay ~$1500 for business, but no more, then the miles are effectively worth that to you. If an airline was selling fares at $1500 you'd buy them, but since they're not, you won't be buying at $4k.

In your hotel example, you should look at the WTP for a room. I might pay $150 for a room, and up to $250 for the high end room. So even if the sticker price is $500, it's value to me is closer to $250, so I'll calculate my CPM that way.

If I was given a $500 hotel voucher (that was non-transferable and expires) and I had absolutely no use for a hotel room I would value that voucher at $0, yes.

Just like if Amazon offered me a year of prime membership for $10 I'd say "no thank you" because I value prime membership at $0. (Don't shop at Amazon much, don't mind waiting for shipping, have all the streaming I need)

Let me know if you ever get any $500 hotel vouchers that you have no use for. I'll happily give you $0 for them.

You missed when I said "non-transferable." Otherwise the value of the voucher to me would be what I could sell it for.

Its pretty easy to use points to book rooms for other people, I was able to gift 4 reservations a few weeks back for an event. All I had to do was write "Gift Reservation for xyz person" in the Request option.

Right, but that's why I said "voucher," not "points." Incidentally, that is why United got such a bad rap for giving out vouchers rather than cash for bumping passengers. Because everyone knows vouchers are more than likely never going to be used before they expire.

Even considering you can book rooms for others, there's still a huge segment of the population (50%?) where hotel points are still completely useless. There's a time in my life hotel points would be completely useless to me too. Many people don't travel and don't have friends/family who travel either, it's as simple as that. The HN crowd seems to believe that everyone is taking a few vacations to far away places a year but that's simply not the case, most people I know do not travel at all and do not want to either.

Plus, even you wanted to use them they would have to have a hotel at the destination where you also wanted to travel to.