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Comment by cjsuk | Hacker News Reader

This is going to end in a war again.

No it won't. The united states will never put boots on the ground against a nuclear capable state willing to use them. maybe it will end in a nuclear exchange by mistake..but if we (the human race) survived the cold war with a vastly more threatening posture this will be fine in the end.

The big difference is that back in the day, the opposing side was consisting of fairly reasonable people.

North Korea is erratic but I don't think it is erratic enough to be willing to turned into glass when it could otherwise keep doing its thing. The regime is not suicidal ( I think...)

I think the unreasonableness of the North Korean regime has been blown far out of proportions by Western governments and their media.

Who's to say the OP was talking about North Korea's regime? I certainly don't trust Trump to deal rationally.

This is also a good point.

No it's not. Even if you despise Trump this isn't reasonable. This is just hyperbole and nonsense.

How so? Trump has shown time and again that he acts out against sound advice. I could see things spiraling out of control with reactions and counter reactions to nuclear/ICBM testing.

Obviously I don't think he's going to wake up one day and obliterate NK, but what happens when NK does another test--maybe an aerial test to really flout the world and show off a mushroom cloud--and Trump's reaction is to lob some missiles at their known nuclear sites? Lobbing missiles is what he did when he got angry seeing dead kids on cable news, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Is that when Seoul starts getting shelled? What do we do if thousands of people in Seoul start dying?

Update: This is Trump's statement about the news...

https://twitter.com/AP/status/895003246372294657

> If NKorea escalates nuclear threat, 'they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.'

Still want to bet on his rational reaction thought process?

Yes. Just because he's taking a tough stance doesn't mean it's irrational. What else should he say? Nothing? Maybe "well if they Lee threatening us we will just do nothing"? What exactly is an appropriate response? Does it even matter anymore? You're paranoid and you don't understand the political nature of this discussion. Saying "he got mad and launched missiles because he saw dead kids on TV" just highlights this.

JFK almost launched off a nuclear conflagration and is considered one of the best american presidents. Donald Trump isn't even near average. These are impossibly stressful decisions in which literally millions of lives lie in the balance. I trust McMaster and Mattis..but at the end of the day the President makes the decisions. During the cuban missile crisis THE JOINT CHIEFS pushed HARD for a full out attack on the cuban mainland. JFK was almost swayed. I think it is very reasonable to ponder whether or not a 71 year old reality television star who is very clearly quite emotional...is capable of winning bets of this nature. Decision making under uncertainty is hard for even the best of us. I do not believe he is the best of us.

Then what I'm wondering is why you trust the generals? Or anybody for that matter?

@AP — BREAKING: Trump: If NKorea escalates nuclear threat, 'they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.'

Great!

For some reason HN isn't letting me respond to your next comment. I trust mattis because I have listened to him give many speeches and he struck me as a sober thinker willing to grapple with hard questions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKIJKQRb53o

My approval of mccmaster was originally based on his reputation stemming from his book "dereliction of duty" about how american generals mishandled vietnam. So that's why I trust them a little bit. But I do not trust them that much. I think they are intelligent people but...I think the pentagon induces a lot of group-think and intellectual momentum and suppression of dissent. When all you have is a hammer..the world looks like a nail. This is part of why I prefer having civilian Sec-Defs..and why it is important to have a president who is willing to cast aside the advice of his advisors..since in the past 15 years (though I liked ash carter and gates) a lot of that advice has been hawkish drivel. I really recommend a book called "The generals" by Thomas E. Ricks (on this topic). Tldr: don't trust the generals that much but more than trump.

For why I trust people (in general), I trust people who are willing to seriously consider the possibility they are dead wrong and people brave enough to seriously consider opposing views. I trust people who try to be rigorous in all things.

McMaster is also currently persona non grata around the WH and alt-right which is not comforting. If he gets the axe things get more tense.

Trump: If NKorea escalates nuclear threat, 'they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen'.

But sure, Trump will certainly be 'rational' only because it just seems too crazy that he wouldn't be.

I agree 100%

Lesson 2 from Robert McNamara and the Cold War: "Rationality alone will not save us."

Also, "our" side.

And so was ours.

I read a bit about North Korea and it seems that no one wants to do something because should the regime fall, you'd have to deal with North Korea's population that is largely uneducated and believes in all Kim's propaganda.

I wonder if Kim will be able to obtain what he wants (money ?) by threatening other countries.

Still, I hope I'm wrong and that China, South Korea and the US will cooperate to put an end to Kim's regime.

> largely uneducated

To be fair, according to Wikipedia, "Education in North Korea is universal and state-funded schooling by the government. The national literacy rate for citizens at age of 15 and older is 100 percent (approx.)."

> believes in all Kim's propaganda

How do you know?

This will be a very convenient narrative for the faltering Trump

why does it need to end in a war, to be frank I think the we in the west; ( particularly USA) should stop getting involved in every bodies business. The west is under a sorry ass illusion if we think other regions are not interested in acquiring their own nukes seeing as we have them, and thanks to our constant intervention around the world e.g Libya, non-allied world leader see nukes as their get out of western intervention ticket.

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