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> Right now they really don't have any decent EV on the market, any of them.

Toyota has the Prius, which is the car model that basically equaled "electric car" before Tesla even though it's "just" a hybrid. I wouldn't put Toyota out of the game yet.

> Both the Asian, European and American competitors will not only be 3-4 or even 5-6-7 years behind.

Where they will be in front of Tesla, however, and that for at least a decade: scaling and support. Once a car manufacturer figures out how to build a decent electric vehicle, it's easy to retool the factories. BMW with its i3/i8 series has experience with electric cars and with scaling while maintaining quality. Also, the big manufacturers have huge networks of dealers and service centers, which means that customers who value reliability and/or stress-free repairs are more likely to buy a BigCo car instead of a Tesla.

> They will be hundreds of millions of miles behind in terms of autonomy, and thousands of charging stations behind.

In Europe, charging station connectors should be standardized so there won't be a major advantage there. And autonomy... I would be surprised if big truck/bus vendors like MAN, Scania, Volvo and others don't have their newest fleet models send telemetry data back to home like Tesla does. Especially buses can deliver mountains of data about city travel back home.

tl; dr: I would not count on BigCar going belly-up, Tesla will imho just be a powerful competition but nothing like BigCar in scale.

>it's easy to retool the factories.

I don't work in an automotive factory, but everyone I've asked about process engineering and factory tooling, has told me the opposite, that it is in fact quite expensive, both in capital and time, to retool.

>huge networks of dealers and service centers, which means that customers who value reliability and/or stress-free repairs are more likely to buy a BigCo car

It could be that I've simply had a completely different experience from you, but I've never really heard anyone I know say that the dealer experience was stress free or that the repairs made at dealers were reliable. In fact, almost everyone I know who is knowledgable about cars stays away from dealer service centers like the plague.

For some context I drive a 17 year old Civic that I mostly work on myself, although I do take it to a trustworthy independent shop for bigger repairs.

I actually think the current dealer network as well as the current private car ownership system might prove to be the biggest risks for the established players.

> I don't work in an automotive factory, but everyone I've asked about process engineering and factory tooling, has told me the opposite, that it is in fact quite expensive, both in capital and time, to retool.

But it's certainly way cheaper and faster than to build a new factory like Tesla will have to do, which is what I wanted to say.

> It could be that I've simply had a completely different experience from you, but I've never really heard anyone I know say that the dealer experience was stress free or that the repairs made at dealers were reliable.

Different country maybe - I'm German. We don't have the kinds of issues the US has.

Thanks for responding and clarifying some points. I agree that from what I've heard Germany doesn't suffer the same kind of problems the US does in regards to the dealer experience.

Not to pile on here, but I think this is one of the things that many Europeans underestimate with regards to Tesla in the US market. If Tesla can continue to sidestep the traditional dealer franchise network, and their lobbying efforts, while scaling, I think this could be one of their biggest advantages going against the established auto companies. Unless you've been subjected to it first hand I think it's difficult to understand just how awful the US dealer experience is. From what I've heard the transparency of the Tesla buying experience is a consistent selling point.

> If Tesla can continue to sidestep the traditional dealer franchise network

The problem is: a Tesla is radically different from any other car. You need specialized knowledge (especially in HV distribution) to properly repair it, and most likely also ultra-special tools, and from what I've heard (eg https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/replacement-parts-why-...) spare parts are extremely hard to come by, even for official Tesla shops.

So basically you need a massive network of official shops and dealers in order to assure the customers that their damaged/broken car is going to get fixed... and that's where BigCar has an advantage: all they need to do is to train one or two employees at each existing shop/dealer in how to service/repair an electric car, and they have the entire country serviced. Tesla on the other hand has to build the stores, hire and train personnel on their own... and that's a significant hit on capex.

I love the Prius but it's a hybrid, not a full EV. Now when we've seen that full EVs can have long range why would we bother with internal combustion engines at all?

"Long range" is a marketing term. Right now I couldn't take a "long range" Tesla into rural North Carolina to see my relatives without serious range anxiety and/or careful routing.

Charging station coverage in the US is about where digital cellular coverage was in the mid-2000s. It exists in most places and in major population centers, but there are clear holes. Gas stations meanwhile are still ubiquitous.

The outlook may be different in 5-10 years, but right now in the US a plug-in hybrid is the best of both worlds IMO. Assuming your round-trip daily commute is within the electric range it's a de-facto pure EV, with the gasoline only kicking in for occasional longer trips.

Charging station coverage in the US is about where digital cellular coverage was in the mid-2000s

Even this may be optimistic. I can name the 5 closest gas stations to my house (even though the closest is about 8 miles away), but I couldn't name a single charging station. Not one. I see Teslas on the road, so they must exist, but I haven't a clue where they are.

Check this map out, you might be surprised: https://www.plugshare.com/

And Tesla's supercharger map: https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

I've found they tend to be out of the way or attached to shopping centers/big box stores/other places you wouldn't expect. It's rare to find a charging station with gas-station-like visibility, the numbers just aren't there yet I guess.

The closest Supercharger is about 40 miles away, but that other map shows a 120V charger about 12km away at a golf course. I wonder if it's specifically for car charging, though. Even this far south in Minnesota, some places do have plug-ins for engine heaters in winter.

> I love the Prius but it's a hybrid, not a full EV.

Indeed, it's much more complex than an EV. Yet as of February 2017 Toyota alone had delivered ten million hybrid vehicles, with 80,000 mile drive train warranties - better than Tesla offer and on a scale magnitudes greater.

The Kia Niro hybrid SUV is rated at 50 miles per gallon. With an 11.9 gallon tank, that's about 600 miles range. It retails for 2/3's the price of a Tesla 3.

Toyota also have their Lexus marque which has long-offered hybrids to the high end/non-taxi demographic.

Didn't tesla 'open sourced' its chargers so anyone could use them?

the "open sourced" their patents. Basically they just promised to not sue the pants off anyone that used their patents.

> They will be hundreds of millions of miles behind in terms of autonomy, and thousands of charging stations behind

Can charging stations not be standardized, like gas stations?

In theory, perhaps. The real-estate economics of charging stations versus gas stations seem to work against a similar model. In part because:

1. The fastest turn around times for charging are about 10x the fastest turn around times for fossil fuels. This presents a queuing problem limited by real estate.

2. The typical fossil fuel refilling time allows high turnover in supplemental facilities such as a Quickie Mart (or in many cases the fuel pumps are auxiliary to retail sales as the primary business). The recharge time of an electric vehicle does not support as high a turnover.

3. Fossil fuels allow better arbitrage for business operators. Cheap gasoline can sit onsite or in transit in tanks to be sold later at a higher price. Electricity prices are typically set by a single local provider and electricity cannot be stored.

The real-estate is the real problem. The Tesla charging station near me is on the parking lot perimeter of a shopping mall. It's almost certainly cheap, but not exactly convenient to either the nearest interstate (ten minutes in traffic) nor the stores in the Mall (1/4 mile each way across a sea of asphalt and it's not really a shopping mall anyone would pull of the interstate for).

Speaking of real estate the EV might actually save a lot of malls since they could convert their parking lots to charging stations and get people to walk around and buy things while they wait

That might work for Tesla because it targets the leisure class...or at least people with plenty of disposable income. That's not everyone. In the case of the charging stations near me, right now it is 34C and 80% humidity and sunny and the doors are ~0.4 km across a shadeless asphalt parking lot. You could shop for a fresh shirt because you'll want one by the time you reach the air conditioning. Maybe get two because you'll want another when you get back to your car that's been sitting in the sun for an hour or so. But at least it's not currently raining.

Shopping at the mall is great if I don't have to be anywhere any time soon and I've got some money to spend on things I probably don't really need. But having to do so every two hundred miles smells more of nuisance than of pleasure.

> your car that's been sitting in the sun for an hour or so.

Just an FYI, you can set a Tesla to keep the interior of the car cool even when you're not in it. I've seen pictures of people leaving notes on their windows telling people not to smash the window to save the dog left inside because the A/C is still running.

And if you're going to be at your destination for several hours, you can still remotely turn the A/C on in preparation for leaving.

It's the idea that I'll be spending two hours at the mall when I'm out of go juice, is part of what makes me think the use cases for all electric vehicles are limited. I can fill up a hybrid in ten minutes and get 500 miles of range and I can fill up just about anywhere.

Tesla had a battery swap system that was faster than filling a normal car - but it turns out the demand wasn't there. Granted, there is still a disadvantage to doing long distance runs on battery, but it accounts for a relatively small percentage of driving.

For some people, 200 miles is long distance. My next door neighbor on one side commutes fifty miles each way and uses their car at work. My next door neighbor on the other side commutes about 240 miles round trip three or four days a week. My friend Bill, lives in Montana and drives 130 miles each way to taking his children to the dentist or shopping at Costco. The nearest Tesla super charger is about two hours away from his house. The road to it is closed in winter...from about October until May...but then even sometimes until it gets plowed.

Sure most of my trips are less than 200 miles. But the majority of the miles I drive are on trips of 200+.

In places outside of the valley, it's not uncommon to see traditional vehicles taking up electric spots if it's a convenient parking spot.

It's also not uncommon to see those towed and the language "Parking while charging ONLY" to appear, too. It is a solvable social problem.

Of course that's an option. I've never once seen a tow truck anywhere near a charging station, or that kind of verbiage. It says "reserved for EV", but it seems as strongly enforced as the parking spots reserved at retailers for online pickup.

Right, one person's slow turnover (quick buy convenience stores) may be another's high turnover (malls).

They probably will be, long term. Short term either everyone will support the market leader's charger, or the market leader will patent the charger and charging stations will become pluggable/universal.

I can see no reality in which make-exclusive charging stations are viable.

This implies traditional car manufacturers are not already working on EV vehicles.

Sure some will be left in the dust because they missed the good wagon, but a large chunk of them will survive and thrive.

Right know Tesla's production is quite small compared to other manufacturers, and even the Model 3 is quite expensive. Most people want a car to go reliably from point A to point B, for a relatively small cost. At 30000 to 35000 dollars, the Model 3 is 50% more expensive than a "good enough" car that fulfills basic needs like daily commutes and a few long trips a year. The Model 3 is still a car for people who likes interesting cars and have the money to buy it.

Also right now, even "quite expensive" electric cars are not yet as convenient as traditional cars. IMHO, EV will become a truly viable alternative when they reach the 3 twos: 20 minutes recharge for 200 kilometers of autonomy, at price of 20000 dollars.

~200 km is the distance traveled between pauses on long trips, ~20 minutes is the duration of the pauses, ~20000 dollars is a bit arbitrarily, but I think it's the average price a middle class family is willing to pay for its main car. Of course it's a general approximation, but I think it's still a quite generous target for EV.

Another possible outcome might not come from the traditional car manufacturers but from China or maybe India. Pollution is a huge issue there given the population density and these countries might need EV to reduce it. "Necessity is the mother of invention", local manufacturers might take a lead because of it.

"20 minutes recharge for 200 kilometers of autonomy, at price of 20000 dollars"

Totally unacceptable. 5 minutes for 4-500 kilometers of autonomy is where it's at. I will not but EV until that happens. I am willing to sacrafice 200km of autonomy ( from my current 600-700km with Civic 1.6 diesel ) for EV.

Everything else is just annoyance for my style of life with daily commute and kids. I don't want to charge for 20 minutes every week at some random charge station.

Considering my friends and family who feel the same I don't think other manufacturers will have any issues catching up with Tesla in 10-20 years.

First to market advantage isn't especially important in this area: the price of gas is low and all estimates forecast it will remain that way for many years to come, while the price of an electric car still far exceeds the cost of the most popular gas cars. The cost calculus still doesn't work for most consumers.

Not only are they behind on time, they are slower to accelerate than a smaller company. The automotive industry is a textbook example of a lumbering behemoth that resists change and takes forever to get anything done.

When they do get rolling, they'll develop a lot of momentum, but it may be too late for some.

How many times can governments bail out autos?

The thing is, even without Tesla in the picture, the auto market looks like crap. Yet somehow, Tesla is able to attract private capital (or at least better press)…