But segwit isn't active yet is it? Is it likely to go ahead?
I usually check the status here: https://www.xbt.eu
Since 100% of the blocks mined during this period has been SegWit, I would say it's very likely that it gets activated!
It’s not a matter of probability. Miners decide what to do, and right now a majority of them will ignore non-SegWit blocks. Doesn’t mean they can’t change their minds, though.
Because of BIP91, any miners who fail to signal segwit will have their blocks orphaned. It's pretty much a done deal at this point.
But is there agreement on the block size? As I understand it, th SegWit BIP and BIP91 (SegWit2x) disagree on block size limit.
BIP91 is not segwit2x. It is just the lower threshold activation of segwit.