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Comment by dkrich | Hacker News Reader

Why are people so sure of this, especially given the recent plummet in oil prices? Car sales are at all time highs. Why do people assume that there's going to be a mass exodus to Tesla and EV's in the next few years?

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Oil companies recently raised their projections on EV adoption by 40% [1]. Many countries are setting aggressive EV quotas, targeting 100% EV adoption in the near future [2, 3]. Perhaps counter-intuitively, oil prices have not historically affected EV purchases [4]. Detailed sales trackers have shown consistent year-over-year growth in the EV segment for the past 22 consecutive months [5], a time when oil prices have been relatively low [6]. Even with low gasoline prices, driving an EV is reported to be less expensive per mile [7].

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-14/big-oil-j...

[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/04/30/indias-a...

[3] https://thinkprogress.org/norway-aims-to-end-sales-of-fuel-b...

[4] http://www.fleetcarma.com/buying-ev-low-oil-prices/

[5] http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

[6] http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/5-...

[7] https://www.pluglesspower.com/learn/driving-electricity-chea...

Electricity will be cheaper than oil in 5-10 years. For many applications, it already is now actually.

The lost gas-tax revenue streams will be replaced. It’s highly likely the TCO will reach parity with gas in short order - same happened with diesel.

Because many think they will be more comfortable to use, have better entertainment systems and everyone can experience sportscar-like acceleration for spending less money than a gas-powered car.

What about environmental factors? Or is new-shiny-fast the only way to coerce people to be more eco-friendly?

The plummet in oil prices might be anticipating that future?

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