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Comment by ApolloFortyNine | Hacker News Reader

That study was a bit misleading in that they only tested brains that were suspected of having CTE in the first place.

Dr. McKee, the study's author, acknowledged that and addressed it:

> But 110 positives remain significant scientific evidence of an N.F.L. player’s risk of developing C.T.E., which can be diagnosed only after death. About 1,300 former players have died since the B.U. group began examining brains. So even if every one of the other 1,200 players had tested negative — which even the heartiest skeptics would agree could not possibly be the case — the minimum C.T.E. prevalence would be close to 9 percent, vastly higher than in the general population.

But it should not be unexpected for the number to be higher. For years people who weigh hundreds of pounds are hitting each other repeatedly. And they are paid considerably well for it. Plus, we should compare this to other sports as well, as even most non-contact sports (soccer, basketball, even baseball) have collisions from time to time. Football should have a higher percentage than those, but without knowing the percentages in even 'safe' sports, these numbers are practically meaningless.

The real issue would arise if they can somehow test high school students and find similarly high percentages (90+ percent), but since you can't test right now until they are deceased (from what I understand), that would be extremely hard to do.

> The real issue would arise if they can somehow test high school students and find similarly high percentages (90+ percent), but since you can't test right now until they are deceased (from what I understand), that would be extremely hard to do.

I think that's seriously downplaying the issue.

Let's say hypothetically HS football players are developing it at 10% vs 1% in the general population. That alone would be a massive discovery, and grounds for seriously reworking or even eliminating HS football. You don't need these rates to be in the 90% range for this to be game changing, so to speak.

Early studies (2012) found that high school students had CTE [1]. When the issue broke nationally a few years ago, early indicators were that high school students were at higher risk than older athletes [2]. There have been some doctors that claim to be able to diagnose living people with CTE [3]. However, concussions are difficult to diagnose [4] and may go unreported. Sadly, one common side effect of concussions is suicidal thoughts [5]. Which is one of the main reasons people are asking if football is worth the risk [6].

[1] http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/schooled_in_sports/2012/12/lo...

[2] http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/high-school-footba...

[3] http://www.tsn.ca/a-possible-breakthrough-on-testing-cte-1.2...

[4] http://www.traumaticbraininjury.net/why-concussions-are-so-h...

[5] http://www.gq.com/story/the-concussion-diaries-high-school-f...

[6] https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2017/07/26/is-footba...

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